Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
Final · DAZN MIN
100–115Last shot · Isaiah Collier makes 1-foot two point shot
At lock: projected UTAH 107.49–119.69 MIN
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 744544398
- Winner: Timberwolves (84%)
- Spread: MIN -11.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 223.5 (70%)
- Score error (both teams)13
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Garcia points | — | 5 | 0 | off -5 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 15 | 16 | off 1 |
| A. Edwards points | — | 30 | 0 | off -30 |
| L. Markkanen points | — | 24 | 0 | off -24 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 107.49–119.69 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMIN +5.5 vs UTAH -7.5 · pred margin +13.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.6 vs -7.3 · back-to-back: MIN, UTAH · model MIN 123.7–108.2 UTAH
- Home field+2.8 pts to MIN
- RecordMIN 8-3 · UTAH 1-9
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MIN -12.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 25 | 26 | 27 | 22 | 100 |
| MIN | 28 | 29 | 33 | 25 | 115 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 3:3592–103Jaxson Hayes makes 7-foot floating jump shot (Ace Bailey assists)
3PT4th Quarter 3:2292–106LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 3:0893–106
Josh Green makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:5193–107
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:5193–108
Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:3795–108
Jaxson Hayes makes alley oop layup (Darryn Peterson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:3796–108
Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:2496–111
Ayo Dosunmu makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0796–113
LaMelo Ball makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:4496–115
Trey Lyles makes two point shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 43.098–115
Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 14.3100–115
Isaiah Collier makes 1-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTAH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Hayes C · #11 | 29 | 18 | 6-6 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 |
 J. Green G · #5 | 28 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
 K. George G · #3 | 30 | 19 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 9-10 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -12 |
 A. Bailey G · #19 | 32 | 7 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 |
 D. Peterson G · #22 | 35 | 26 | 11-21 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +3 |
 K. Filipowski F · #2 | 15 | 9 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -7 |
 B. Sensabaugh F · #28 | 13 | 2 | 1-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
 T. Bradley C · #13 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
 M. Bamba C · #44 | 17 | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -17 |
 S. Mykhailiuk G · #10 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 J. Okogie G · #21 | 17 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -19 |
 I. Collier G · #8 | 16 | 6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -14 |
 K. Bufkin G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 100 | 37-87 | 7-24 | 19-24 | 37 | 21 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-87 | 38-77 |
| FG% | 43 | 49 |
| 3PT | 7-24 | 12-32 |
| 3P% | 29 | 38 |
| FT | 19-24 | 27-32 |
| FT% | 79 | 84 |
| REB | 37 | 45 |
| OR | 11 | 10 |
| DR | 26 | 35 |
| AST | 21 | 18 |
| STL | 10 | 8 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 13 | 22 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 22 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 25 |
| FBPs | 21 | 27 |
| PIP | 54 | 50 |
| PF | 20 | 26 |
| LL | 6 | 19 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 9 | 83 |
At lock UTAH 107.49–119.69 MIN · 3.7 pts over 223.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp L. Ball · MIN
24 PTS · over 21.5J. Hayes · UTAH
29 MIN · 18 PTSJ. McDaniels · MIN
33 MIN · 16 PTSDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 35 MIN · 26 PTS · 11-21 FG · 4-8 3PTAyo Dosunmu · MIN
STAT · 30 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-13 FG · 4-5 3PTKeyonte George · UTAH
STAT · 30 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-13 FG · 0-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Ball Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jazz vs Timberwolves pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 223.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day