Los Angeles Lakers at Detroit Pistons
Final · NBA TV
121–116Last shot · Cade Cunningham misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected LAL 109.21–114.01 DET
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 761322017
- Winner: Pistons (66%)
- Spread: DET -4.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)14
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Cunningham points | — | 24 | 14 | off -10 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 35 | 0 | off -35 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 23 | 43 | off 20 |
| D. Robinson points | — | 15 | 12 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: LAL vs DET
The model
How this number was built
LAL 109.21–114.01 DET · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDET +3.9 vs LAL +5.0 · pred margin +7.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.8 vs +3.9 · back-to-back: DET, LAL · model DET 116.6–112.7 LAL
- Home field+2.8 pts to DET
- RecordDET 6-3 · LAL 9-2
- Market priorBlended 80% toward DET -8.5 / total 216.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 38 | 23 | 27 | 33 | 121 |
| DET | 14 | 34 | 33 | 35 | 116 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 26.3114–109Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 26.3114–110
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 3 of 3
FT4th Quarter 25.4115–110Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 25.4116–110
Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 18.8116–112
Cade Cunningham makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 18.1117–112
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 18.1118–112
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 13.1118–114
Cade Cunningham makes 2-foot driving dunk
- FT4th Quarter 8.7119–114
Ziaire Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2.6119–116
Kevin Huerter makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 2.2120–116
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2.2121–116
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| LAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. LaRavia F · #12 | 29 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +3 |
 W. Kessler C · #14 | 29 | 12 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 3 | +5 |
 M. Thybulle G · #4 | 28 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
 A. Reaves G · #15 | 37 | 43 | 14-27 | 4-6 | 11-11 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +21 |
 Q. Grimes G · #5 | 32 | 12 | 4-12 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Vanderbilt F · #2 | 14 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 2 | +2 |
 S. Mamukelashvili F · #54 | 18 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -7 |
 Z. Williams F · #11 | 21 | 17 | 6-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +7 |
 A. Thiero F · #1 | 8 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -8 |
 C. Sexton G · #10 | 24 | 17 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 |
 K. Looney F · #55 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Lovering C | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. James G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Hardy G · #7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Carr G · #43 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 121 | 42-84 | 11-28 | 26-33 | 44 | 19 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 20 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LAL | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 42-84 | 42-94 |
| FG% | 50 | 45 |
| 3PT | 11-28 | 19-48 |
| 3P% | 39 | 40 |
| FT | 26-33 | 13-20 |
| FT% | 79 | 65 |
| REB | 44 | 43 |
| OR | 12 | 18 |
| DR | 32 | 25 |
| AST | 19 | 27 |
| STL | 6 | 10 |
| BLK | 6 | 7 |
| TO | 14 | 12 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 21 | 23 |
| FBPs | 13 | 16 |
| PIP | 58 | 46 |
| PF | 20 | 28 |
| LL | 26 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 97 | 0 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Under 8.5 assists in 7 of 8 games this season (7.6 APG) and 5 of 6 since Jalen Duren went out; Duren is out again tonight, and DraftKings is paying plus money.
At lock LAL 109.21–114.01 DET · DET by 4.8 pts vs DET -4.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Reaves · LAL
43 PTS · over 23.5J. LaRavia · LAL
29 MIN · 5 PTSD. Robinson · DET
27 MIN · 12 PTSDaniss Jenkins · DET
STAT · 32 MIN · 31 PTS · 9-17 FG · 8-15 3PTKevin Huerter · DET
STAT · 35 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-14 FG · 4-8 3PTZiaire Williams · LAL
STAT · 21 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-10 FG · 4-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Reaves Under 23.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lakers vs Pistons pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is DET -4.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day