San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers
Final · KUNP 16
125–103Last shot · Harrison Barnes misses 23-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected SA 117.00–115.00 POR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 727766779
- Winner: Spurs (58%)
- Spread: SA -2.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 228.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vassell points | — | 13 | 15 | off 2 |
| D. Avdija points | — | 24 | 15 | off -9 |
| T. Camara points | — | 14 | 4 | off -10 |
| D. Fox points | — | 17 | 8 | off -9 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SA vs POR
The model
How this number was built
SA 117.00–115.00 POR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPOR +4.3 vs SA +10.2 · pred margin -4.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.5 vs +8.4 · back-to-back: POR, SA · model POR 113.1–116.4 SA
- Home field+2.8 pts to POR
- RecordPOR 6-3 · SA 8-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SA -5.5 / total 228.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 22 | 42 | 45 | 16 | 125 |
| POR | 20 | 29 | 27 | 27 | 103 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 5:13118–93Jayson Kent makes running layup (Chris Youngblood assists)
FT4th Quarter 5:08119–93Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 5:08120–93
Keldon Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:54120–95
Chris Youngblood makes 4-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 4:14123–95
Jordan McLaughlin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tarris Reed Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:28123–97
Micah Potter makes running layup (Chris Youngblood assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:56123–98
Chris Youngblood makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:56123–99
Chris Youngblood makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:32125–99
Tarris Reed Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:17125–101
Yang Hansen makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 11.2125–102
Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 11.2125–103
Yang Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 V. Wembanyama F · #1 | 24 | 29 | 9-13 | 3-6 | 8-9 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +23 |
 D. Fox G · #4 | 22 | 8 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +23 |
 D. Vassell G · #24 | 21 | 15 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +26 |
 S. Castle G · #5 | 24 | 14 | 5-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +19 |
 D. Harper G · #2 | 28 | 13 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +29 |
 H. Barnes F · #40 | 19 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8 |
 K. Johnson F · #3 | 27 | 10 | 3-10 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +4 |
 J. Champagnie F · #30 | 21 | 14 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +15 |
 C. Bryant F · #11 | 17 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 |
 L. Kornet C · #7 | 15 | 6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +9 |
 T. Reed Jr. C · #10 | 9 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 |
 J. McLaughlin G · #0 | 12 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
| Team | 125 | 40-90 | 17-44 | 28-30 | 51 | 29 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 37 | 30 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-90 | 35-84 |
| FG% | 44 | 42 |
| 3PT | 17-44 | 9-35 |
| 3P% | 39 | 26 |
| FT | 28-30 | 24-30 |
| FT% | 93 | 80 |
| REB | 51 | 38 |
| OR | 14 | 8 |
| DR | 37 | 30 |
| AST | 29 | 17 |
| STL | 7 | 9 |
| BLK | 7 | 3 |
| TO | 16 | 17 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 18 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 13 | 23 |
| FBPs | 12 | 8 |
| PIP | 40 | 46 |
| PF | 30 | 20 |
| LL | 35 | 0 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 96 | 0 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects SA by 2.00, which also covers POR +5.5.
Why Grok Expert likes POR +5.5: POR 6-1 ATS as a home dog at +5.5; SA is 7-2 SU but 3-6 ATS and on a road B2B after Sacramento; Lillard/Avdija/Clingan hold the Blazers up and Morant/Sharpe outs are already in the price
At lock SA 117.00–115.00 POR · SA by 2.0 pts vs POR +5.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp S. Castle · SA
14 PTS · under 16.5V. Wembanyama · SA
24 MIN · 29 PTST. Camara · POR
21 MIN · 4 PTSDevin Vassell · SA
STAT · 21 MIN · 15 PTS · 4-8 FG · 2-4 3PTDeni Avdija · POR
STAT · 24 MIN · 15 PTS · 5-13 FG · 2-3 3PTJulian Champagnie · SA
STAT · 21 MIN · 14 PTS · 4-7 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · S. Castle Under 16.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Spurs vs Trail Blazers pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is POR +5.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day