Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors
Final/OT
119–126Last shot · Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shot
At lock: projected ORL 108.53–114.19 GS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 828432493
- Winner: Warriors (68%)
- Spread: ORL +6.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 220.5 (64%)
- Score error (both teams)21
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 21 | 23 | off 2 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 0 | off -19 |
| S. Curry points | — | 28 | 41 | off 13 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 30 | off 9 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs GS
The model
How this number was built
ORL 108.53–114.19 GS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGS -2.9 vs ORL -0.3 · pred margin +6.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.9 vs -1.4 · back-to-back: GS, ORL · model GS 114.3–109.9 ORL
- Home field+2.8 pts to GS
- RecordGS 7-3 · ORL 2-7
- Market priorBlended 80% toward GS -7.5 / total 220.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 19 | 22 | 37 | 32 | 9 | 119 |
| GS | 31 | 26 | 20 | 33 | 16 | 126 |
Scoring plays
FTOT 3:48111–114Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 3:48112–114
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
3PTOT 3:26112–117Yaxel Lendeborg makes 26-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)
- JUMP SHOTOT 3:06115–117
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)
- JUMP SHOTOT 2:24118–117
Tristan da Silva makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCOREOT 1:38118–119
Stephen Curry makes 8-foot two point shot
- FTOT 1:38118–120
Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCOREOT 54.1118–122
Stephen Curry makes 8-foot two point shot
- FTOT 18.1119–122
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCOREOT 11.0119–124
Yaxel Lendeborg makes 2-foot dunk (Georges Niang assists)
- FTOT 8.6119–125
Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 8.6119–126
Yaxel Lendeborg makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ORL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 F. Wagner F · #22 | 40 | 30 | 11-22 | 3-7 | 5-5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -2 |
 T. da Silva F · #23 | 39 | 19 | 7-21 | 5-16 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -9 |
 W. Carter Jr. C · #34 | 40 | 19 | 6-12 | 3-3 | 4-9 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 | -9 |
 A. Black G · #0 | 38 | 18 | 7-19 | 2-6 | 2-3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 |
 J. Richardson G · #11 | 30 | 2 | 1-13 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +5 |
 J. Cain F · #8 | 36 | 18 | 6-14 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -15 |
 N. Vucevic C · #9 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 |
 G. Bitadze C · #35 | 7 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +7 |
 J. Carter G · #2 | 15 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
 A. Morales G · #30 | 15 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +8 |
 C. Castleton C · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 119 | 43-113 | 18-54 | 15-21 | 57 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 24 | 33 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ORL | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 43-113 | 43-80 |
| FG% | 38 | 54 |
| 3PT | 18-54 | 15-32 |
| 3P% | 33 | 47 |
| FT | 15-21 | 25-31 |
| FT% | 71 | 81 |
| REB | 57 | 42 |
| OR | 24 | 3 |
| DR | 33 | 39 |
| AST | 29 | 32 |
| STL | 9 | 10 |
| BLK | 6 | 10 |
| TO | 14 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 19 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| TECH | 1 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 10 | 26 |
| FBPs | 5 | 8 |
| PIP | 44 | 50 |
| PF | 24 | 24 |
| LL | 6 | 16 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 14 | 75 |
At lock ORL 108.53–114.19 GS · GS by 5.7 pts vs ORL +6.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp F. Wagner · ORL
30 PTS · over 21.5D. Green · GS
34 MIN · 2 PTSStephen Curry · GS
STAT · 36 MIN · 41 PTS · 13-19 FG · 5-10 3PTYaxel Lendeborg · GS
STAT · 37 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-15 FG · 2-4 3PTTristan da Silva · ORL
STAT · 39 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-21 FG · 5-16 3PTWendell Carter Jr. · ORL
STAT · 40 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · F. Wagner Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Magic vs Warriors pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ORL +6.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day