Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder
Final · MNMT
75–114Last shot · Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointer
At lock: projected WSH 105.23–117.36 OKC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 778099636
- Winner: Thunder (85%)
- Spread: OKC -11.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 220.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)34
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mitchell points | — | 15 | 12 | off -3 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 31 | 30 | off -1 |
| A. Davis points | — | 21 | 0 | off -21 |
| A. Dybantsa points | — | 16 | 19 | off 3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: WSH vs OKC
The model
How this number was built
WSH 105.23–117.36 OKC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexOKC +7.0 vs WSH -4.5 · pred margin +13.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs -6.6 · back-to-back: OKC, WSH · model OKC 120.7–106.2 WSH
- Home field+2.8 pts to OKC
- RecordOKC 8-2 · WSH 4-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OKC -12.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 17 | 23 | 16 | 75 |
| OKC | 25 | 32 | 33 | 24 | 114 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 7:0765–101Brooks Barnhizer makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Aday Mara assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 6:5367–101AJ Dybantsa makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Tre Mann assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 6:0967–103
Aday Mara makes 9-foot fade away jump shot (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:4369–103
Will Riley makes running dunk (Tre Johnson assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:2669–105
Micah Peavy makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:3769–107
Josh Dix makes driving layup (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:2069–109
Micah Peavy makes running layup (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:5371–109
Tre Mann makes running layup (Bub Carrington assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:3271–112
Bennett Stirtz makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0571–114
Dalen Terry makes running layup (Bennett Stirtz assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:2572–114
Anthony Gill makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 47.375–114
Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointer
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| WSH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Dybantsa F · #4 | 31 | 19 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -24 |
 K. George F · #18 | 30 | 14 | 5-16 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -19 |
 A. Sarr C · #20 | 28 | 15 | 7-17 | 1-9 | 0-0 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 1 | -21 |
 T. Young G · #3 | 28 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -21 |
 B. Coulibaly G · #0 | 20 | 0 | 0-8 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -19 |
 A. Gill F · #16 | 9 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
 D. Ayton C · #8 | 7 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 |
 T. Mann G · #1 | 18 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -17 |
 B. Carrington G · #7 | 21 | 9 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -22 |
 W. Riley G · #27 | 20 | 5 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -21 |
 T. Johnson G · #12 | 28 | 4 | 2-15 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -20 |
 K. Middleton F · #22 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 75 | 29-98 | 7-43 | 10-15 | 47 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 16 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WSH | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 29-98 | 45-92 |
| FG% | 30 | 49 |
| 3PT | 7-43 | 10-28 |
| 3P% | 16 | 36 |
| FT | 10-15 | 14-18 |
| FT% | 67 | 78 |
| REB | 47 | 55 |
| OR | 15 | 10 |
| DR | 32 | 45 |
| AST | 20 | 33 |
| STL | 6 | 9 |
| BLK | 6 | 7 |
| TO | 11 | 10 |
| TTO | 1 | 3 |
| ToTO | 12 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 17 | 10 |
| FBPs | 11 | 21 |
| PIP | 32 | 56 |
| PF | 16 | 11 |
| LL | 1 | 43 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 2 | 95 |
At lock WSH 105.23–117.36 OKC · OKC by 12.1 pts vs OKC -11.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp A. Davis · WSH
0 · under 20.5A. Dybantsa · WSH
31 MIN · 19 PTSI. Hartenstein · OKC
18 MIN · 2 PTSShai Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
STAT · 29 MIN · 30 PTS · 11-20 FG · 3-5 3PTJared McCain · OKC
STAT · 23 MIN · 19 PTS · 8-10 FG · 2-4 3PTAday Mara · OKC
STAT · 27 MIN · 18 PTS · 8-10 FG · 1-1 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Davis Under 20.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Wizards vs Thunder pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OKC -11.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day