Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Final · NBA TV
100–120Last shot · Brandon Williams blocks Dru Smith 's 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected MIA 114.00–118.00 GS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 743411565
- Winner: Warriors (55%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Adebayo points | — | 19 | 18 | off -1 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 11 | 22 | off 11 |
| S. Curry points | — | 28 | 29 | off 1 |
| Y. Lendeborg points | — | 22 | 17 | off -5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIA vs GS
The model
How this number was built
MIA 114.00–118.00 GS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexGS -2.9 vs MIA +1.3 · pred margin +2.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.9 vs -0.4 · back-to-back: GS, MIA · model GS 118.5–115.2 MIA
- Home field+2.8 pts to GS
- RecordGS 6-3 · MIA 3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GS -3.5 / total 236.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 29 | 24 | 23 | 24 | 100 |
| GS | 26 | 27 | 38 | 29 | 120 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 5:4992–107Bam Adebayo makes two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 5:4993–107
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:0895–107
Davion Mitchell makes running layup (Ryan Conwell assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 4:0495–109Charles Bassey makes 1-foot dunk (Brandon Williams assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:4295–111
Georges Niang makes running layup (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 3:0695–113
Georges Niang makes layup (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:5796–113
Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:2596–115
Yaxel Lendeborg makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Brandon Williams assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:0898–115
Davion Mitchell makes 5-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:3198–118
Georges Niang makes 24-foot three point jumper (Yaxel Lendeborg assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:17100–118
Ryan Conwell makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 58.0100–120
Brandon Williams makes 7-foot two point shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Antetokounmpo F · #7 | 31 | 20 | 7-13 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | -22 |
 A. Wiggins F · #22 | 21 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -1 |
 B. Adebayo C · #13 | 33 | 18 | 7-12 | 0-2 | 4-7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | -9 |
 K. Thompson G · #11 | 23 | 11 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 3-3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 |
 D. Mitchell G · #2 | 38 | 22 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -16 |
 B. Portis F · #95 | 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -5 |
 M. Gardner F · #15 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 N. Jovic F · #5 | 12 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 |
 N. Richards C · #8 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 T. Hardaway Jr. G · #10 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 |
 D. Smith G · #12 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 P. Larsson G · #9 | 29 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -15 |
 R. Conwell G · #4 | 30 | 13 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -10 |
 S. Fontecchio F · #0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 100 | 35-86 | 13-44 | 17-23 | 39 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-86 | 42-80 |
| FG% | 41 | 53 |
| 3PT | 13-44 | 16-41 |
| 3P% | 30 | 39 |
| FT | 17-23 | 20-25 |
| FT% | 74 | 80 |
| REB | 39 | 44 |
| OR | 9 | 7 |
| DR | 30 | 37 |
| AST | 27 | 36 |
| STL | 8 | 11 |
| BLK | 5 | 9 |
| TO | 19 | 18 |
| TTO | 3 | 1 |
| ToTO | 22 | 19 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| TECH | 1 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 28 | 17 |
| FBPs | 7 | 21 |
| PIP | 32 | 50 |
| PF | 22 | 22 |
| LL | 10 | 20 |
| LC | 3 | 3 |
| LPCT | 44 | 45 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects GS by 4.00, which also covers MIA +7.5.
Why Grok Expert likes MIA +7.5: Warriors without Butler, Porzingis and Moody; Heat get 7.5 on a number that moved from +4.5; Giannis wrist is taped but he played 40 OT minutes last night and Miami just stole one in LA.
At lock MIA 114.00–118.00 GS · GS by 4.0 pts vs MIA +7.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: MIA +4.5 locked at 54% when posted
MissProp G. Antetokounmpo · MIA
20 PTS · under 29.5D. Green · GS
27 MIN · 2 PTSStephen Curry · GS
STAT · 28 MIN · 29 PTS · 9-19 FG · 6-12 3PTDavion Mitchell · MIA
STAT · 38 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-18 FG · 4-9 3PTBam Adebayo · MIA
STAT · 33 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-12 FG · 0-2 3PTYaxel Lendeborg · GS
STAT · 30 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-14 FG · 1-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · G. Antetokounmpo Under 29.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Heat vs Warriors pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIA +7.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day