Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns
Final · Suns Live
104–117Last shot · Jamal Cain misses 25-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected ORL 111.66–113.50 PHX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 4, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 726633946
- Winner: Suns (59%)
- Score error (both teams)10
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bridges points | — | 17 | 18 | off 1 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 15 | off -4 |
| D. Booker points | — | 25 | 30 | off 5 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 20 | 15 | off -5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ORL vs PHX
The model
How this number was built
ORL 111.66–113.50 PHX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHX -1.0 vs ORL -0.3 · pred margin +1.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.1 vs -1.4 · back-to-back: PHX, ORL · model PHX 113.5–110.0 ORL
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHX
- RecordPHX 2-5 · ORL 2-6
- Market priorBlended 68% toward PHX -1.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 26 | 25 | 22 | 31 | 104 |
| PHX | 33 | 30 | 33 | 21 | 117 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 6:3687–109Franz Wagner makes running layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 6:0289–109
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Anthony Black assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 5:4089–111Jalen Green makes 2-foot two point shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:3092–111
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 5:1092–113
Devin Booker makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:5594–113
Wendell Carter Jr. makes dunk (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:2794–115
Dillon Brooks makes 13-foot fade away jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:4597–115
Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:07100–115
Jase Richardson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:12100–117
Devin Booker makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:20102–117
Jase Richardson makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Colin Castleton assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:04104–117
Goga Bitadze makes 1-foot running dunk (Jase Richardson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| ORL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 F. Wagner F · #22 | 38 | 15 | 7-13 | 0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -7 |
 W. Carter Jr. C · #34 | 34 | 27 | 10-12 | 2-2 | 5-6 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 3 | -6 |
 D. Bane G · #3 | 32 | 15 | 5-12 | 3-9 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -6 |
 A. Black G · #0 | 31 | 10 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -3 |
 J. Richardson G · #11 | 26 | 10 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 |
 J. Cain F · #8 | 25 | 5 | 2-9 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -14 |
 T. da Silva F · #23 | 30 | 18 | 6-15 | 4-12 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -15 |
 N. Vucevic C · #9 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -11 |
 G. Bitadze C · #35 | 8 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +6 |
 C. Castleton C · #14 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +4 |
 J. Carter G · #2 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
 A. Morales G · #30 | 6 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Team | 104 | 39-81 | 13-38 | 13-24 | 48 | 28 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 33 | 14 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ORL | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 39-81 | 45-87 |
| FG% | 48 | 52 |
| 3PT | 13-38 | 17-34 |
| 3P% | 34 | 50 |
| FT | 13-24 | 10-13 |
| FT% | 54 | 77 |
| REB | 48 | 33 |
| OR | 15 | 6 |
| DR | 33 | 27 |
| AST | 28 | 30 |
| STL | 9 | 14 |
| BLK | 3 | 3 |
| TO | 25 | 14 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 25 | 15 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 36 | 22 |
| FBPs | 23 | 18 |
| PIP | 48 | 40 |
| PF | 14 | 24 |
| LL | 6 | 30 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 11 | 88 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Wagner is averaging 7.6 assists in 36 minutes, and with Paolo Banchero (ankle) and Jalen Suggs (knee) both out multiple weeks he is Orlando's primary creator next to Bane. Cleared 6.5 dimes in 3 of his last 4, including 12 and 11 at Toronto.
At lock ORL 111.66–113.50 PHX · PHX by 1.8 pts vs PHX -1.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp F. Wagner · ORL
15 PTS · under 22.5D. Brooks · PHX
29 MIN · 24 PTSDevin Booker · PHX
STAT · 34 MIN · 30 PTS · 11-22 FG · 4-8 3PTWendell Carter Jr. · ORL
STAT · 34 MIN · 27 PTS · 10-12 FG · 2-2 3PTTristan da Silva · ORL
STAT · 30 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-15 FG · 4-12 3PTMiles Bridges · PHX
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 6-10 FG · 3-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · F. Wagner Under 22.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Magic vs Suns pick result · Nov 5, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHX -1.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day