Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Final · ESPN
111–112Last shot · Kyrie Irving misses 15-foot two point shot
At lock: projected DAL 108.89–121.23 SA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:31 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 676301089
- Winner: Spurs (85%)
- Spread: DAL +12.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 229.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)12
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vassell points | — | 13 | 2 | off -11 |
| D. Fox points | — | 18 | 10 | off -8 |
| C. Flagg points | — | 22 | 19 | off -3 |
| P.J. Washington points | — | 14 | 21 | off 7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DAL vs SA
The model
How this number was built
DAL 108.89–121.23 SA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSA +10.2 vs DAL -0.1 · pred margin +12.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +8.4 vs -2.2 · back-to-back: SA, DAL · model SA 121.5–108.5 DAL
- Home field+2.8 pts to SA
- RecordSA 6-2 · DAL 4-4
- Market priorBlended 67% toward SA -12.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 26 | 25 | 29 | 31 | 111 |
| SA | 32 | 36 | 22 | 22 | 112 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 6:05100–100Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:38103–100
P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
3PT4th Quarter 5:20103–103Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot three pointer
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:31103–105
Dylan Harper makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 4:20104–105
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:15104–107
Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:54106–107
Cooper Flagg makes 2-foot two point shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:39106–109
Victor Wembanyama makes two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:30108–109
Kyrie Irving makes 10-foot two point shot
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 1:47108–111
Victor Wembanyama makes tip shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:41111–111
Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)
- FT4th Quarter 24.2111–112
Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DAL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Gafford F · #21 | 18 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 |
 P.J. Washington F · #25 | 39 | 21 | 7-18 | 3-8 | 4-5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
 C. Flagg F · #32 | 40 | 19 | 7-19 | 0-3 | 5-7 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 |
 Z. Risacher F · #10 | 18 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 |
 K. Irving G · #11 | 36 | 29 | 9-27 | 5-14 | 6-8 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -4 |
 C. Martin F · #16 | 20 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +2 |
 N. Marshall F · #3 | 26 | 22 | 9-12 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +5 |
 M. Johnson Jr. F · #14 | 18 | 8 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | +1 |
 M. Sasser G · #8 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 |
 W. Clayton Jr. G · #1 | 21 | 8 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +3 |
 T. Lawal F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Cisse C · #30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Howard G · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 111 | 39-102 | 14-37 | 19-26 | 49 | 29 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 31 | 27 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 39-102 | 37-95 |
| FG% | 38 | 39 |
| 3PT | 14-37 | 5-36 |
| 3P% | 38 | 14 |
| FT | 19-26 | 33-39 |
| FT% | 73 | 85 |
| REB | 49 | 61 |
| OR | 18 | 22 |
| DR | 31 | 39 |
| AST | 29 | 20 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 4 | 10 |
| TO | 8 | 10 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 8 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 5 | 9 |
| FBPs | 10 | 13 |
| PIP | 40 | 62 |
| PF | 27 | 20 |
| LL | 3 | 19 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 2 | 90 |
At lock DAL 108.89–121.23 SA · 0.6 pts over 229.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp J. Champagnie · SA
0 PTS · needs 9.5 moreD. Gafford · DAL
18 MIN · 2 PTSV. Wembanyama · SA
34 MIN · 52 PTSKyrie Irving · DAL
STAT · 36 MIN · 29 PTS · 9-27 FG · 5-14 3PTNaji Marshall · DAL
STAT · 26 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-12 FG · 3-3 3PTP.J. Washington · DAL
STAT · 39 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-18 FG · 3-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Champagnie Over 9.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Mavericks vs Spurs pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 229.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day