Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
Final · KUNP 16
132–119Last shot · Pat Spencer misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
At lock: projected POR 115.05–112.20 PHX
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 659523470
- Winner: Trail Blazers (57%)
- Score error (both teams)25
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Camara points | — | 14 | 11 | off -3 |
| D. Avdija points | — | 24 | 21 | off -3 |
| D. Booker points | — | 25 | 33 | off 8 |
| M. Bridges points | — | 17 | 18 | off 1 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: POR vs PHX
The model
How this number was built
POR 115.05–112.20 PHX · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexPHX -1.0 vs POR +4.3 · pred margin -2.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +0.1 vs +3.5 · back-to-back: PHX, POR · model PHX 112.8–114.4 POR
- Home field+2.8 pts to PHX
- RecordPHX 1-5 · POR 6-1
- Market priorBlended 68% toward POR -2.5 / total 227.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 29 | 43 | 32 | 28 | 132 |
| PHX | 34 | 25 | 26 | 34 | 119 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 2:51124–107Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2
3PT4th Quarter 2:30124–110Jamaree Bouyea makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:10126–110
Branden Carlson makes 10-foot floating jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)
- XP4th Quarter 1:52126–112
Duop Reath makes 3-foot two point shot (Pat Spencer assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:23126–115
Duop Reath makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Dunn assists)
- LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 51.3126–117
Duop Reath makes layup
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 35.1129–117
Micah Potter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Chris Youngblood assists)
- FT4th Quarter 23.4130–117
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.3130–118
Koa Peat makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.3130–119
Koa Peat makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.2131–119
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 9.2132–119
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| POR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Camara F · #33 | 32 | 11 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 2-6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +6 |
 D. Avdija F · #8 | 35 | 21 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 6-9 | 7 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +16 |
 D. Clingan C · #23 | 29 | 24 | 9-12 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | +13 |
 D. Lillard G · #0 | 33 | 25 | 9-17 | 2-8 | 5-5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +16 |
 S. Henderson G · #00 | 22 | 9 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 |
 R. Williams III C · #35 | 16 | 9 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +2 |
 M. Potter C · #9 | 2 | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
 B. Carlson C · #10 | 3 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
 Y. Hansen C · #16 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 J. Holiday G · #5 | 28 | 15 | 5-9 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +13 |
 V. Krejci G · #27 | 12 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +11 |
 C. Youngblood G · #11 | 4 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 |
 S. Cissoko G · #91 | 21 | 7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +9 |
| Team | 132 | 44-86 | 14-39 | 30-41 | 47 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 31 | 24 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| POR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-86 | 41-92 |
| FG% | 51 | 45 |
| 3PT | 14-39 | 10-36 |
| 3P% | 36 | 28 |
| FT | 30-41 | 27-31 |
| FT% | 73 | 87 |
| REB | 47 | 39 |
| OR | 16 | 14 |
| DR | 31 | 25 |
| AST | 29 | 26 |
| STL | 4 | 5 |
| BLK | 8 | 7 |
| TO | 17 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 18 | 12 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| TECH | 2 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 21 | 20 |
| FBPs | 19 | 9 |
| PIP | 56 | 46 |
| PF | 24 | 29 |
| LL | 22 | 5 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 74 | 21 |
At lock POR 115.05–112.20 PHX · POR by 2.8 pts vs PHX +3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. Maluach · PHX
6 PTS · needs 0.5 moreT. Camara · POR
32 MIN · 11 PTSD. Brooks · PHX
35 MIN · 15 PTSDevin Booker · PHX
STAT · 34 MIN · 33 PTS · 9-19 FG · 2-8 3PTDamian Lillard · POR
STAT · 33 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-17 FG · 2-8 3PTDonovan Clingan · POR
STAT · 29 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-12 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Maluach Over 6.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Trail Blazers vs Suns pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHX +3.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day