Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets
Final · DAZN MIN
117–107Last shot · Tari Eason misses running pullup jump shot
At lock: projected MIN 108.57–115.53 HOU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 625968232
- Winner: Rockets (73%)
- Spread: MIN +9.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)17
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Thompson points | — | 18 | 11 | off -7 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 15 | 14 | off -1 |
| R. Gobert points | — | 10 | 8 | off -2 |
| K. Durant points | — | 25 | 21 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs HOU
The model
How this number was built
MIN 108.57–115.53 HOU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexHOU +6.3 vs MIN +5.5 · pred margin +6.0
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs +5.6 · back-to-back: HOU, MIN · model HOU 112.9–111.4 MIN
- Home field+2.8 pts to HOU
- RecordHOU 7-2 · MIN 6-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward HOU -7.5 / total 219.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 33 | 24 | 25 | 35 | 117 |
| HOU | 30 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 107 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:38104–99Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 3:46104–102
Fred VanVleet makes 27-foot three pointer
SCORE4th Quarter 3:27106–102LaMelo Ball makes 7-foot two point shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:58106–104
Fred VanVleet makes 14-foot fade away jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:37109–104
Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 1:51111–104
Jonathan Kuminga makes tip shot
- FT4th Quarter 1:47111–105
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:47111–106
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 54.0114–106
Jonathan Kuminga makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 40.5116–106
Rudy Gobert makes alley oop layup (LaMelo Ball assists)
- FT4th Quarter 28.2117–106
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 19.2117–107
Amen Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. McDaniels F · #3 | 37 | 14 | 7-14 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +9 |
 J. Kuminga F · #24 | 32 | 16 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | +6 |
 R. Gobert C · #27 | 33 | 8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 2-6 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +11 |
 A. Dosunmu G · #13 | 34 | 21 | 10-20 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +10 |
 L. Ball G · #1 | 31 | 20 | 6-11 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +15 |
 T. Lyles F · #41 | 20 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +3 |
 J. Beringer F · #19 | 13 | 4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 |
 J. Clark G · #7 | 25 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
 B. Hyland G · #8 | 16 | 19 | 7-13 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
 C. Williams F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Evans F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Zikarsky C · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Pullin G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 46-87 | 15-35 | 10-19 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 25 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 46-87 | 35-82 |
| FG% | 53 | 43 |
| 3PT | 15-35 | 13-37 |
| 3P% | 43 | 35 |
| FT | 10-19 | 24-30 |
| FT% | 53 | 80 |
| REB | 45 | 41 |
| OR | 15 | 14 |
| DR | 30 | 27 |
| AST | 28 | 22 |
| STL | 11 | 6 |
| BLK | 8 | 8 |
| TO | 17 | 18 |
| TTO | 0 | 4 |
| ToTO | 17 | 22 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 19 | 33 |
| FBPs | 19 | 7 |
| PIP | 54 | 40 |
| PF | 25 | 20 |
| LL | 11 | 5 |
| LC | 26 | 26 |
| LPCT | 52 | 36 |
At lock MIN 108.57–115.53 HOU · HOU by 7.0 pts vs MIN +8.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock · Play of the Day: MIN +8.5 locked at 55% when posted
HitProp M. Smart · HOU
4 PTS · needs 3.5 moreJ. McDaniels · MIN
37 MIN · 14 PTSK. Durant · HOU
35 MIN · 21 PTSAyo Dosunmu · MIN
STAT · 34 MIN · 21 PTS · 10-20 FG · 0-3 3PTLaMelo Ball · MIN
STAT · 31 MIN · 20 PTS · 6-11 FG · 4-7 3PTBones Hyland · MIN
STAT · 16 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-13 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · M. Smart Over 7.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Timberwolves vs Rockets pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is MIN +8.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day