Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Final · KSBI
116–124Last shot · Donovan Mitchell misses 27-foot three point jumper
At lock: projected CLE 112.45–116.15 OKC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 575782470
- Winner: Thunder (61%)
- Spread: OKC -2.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 228.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)11
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mitchell points | — | 14 | 23 | off 9 |
| J. Harden points | — | 22 | 19 | off -3 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 28 | 27 | off -1 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 30 | 42 | off 12 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CLE vs OKC
The model
How this number was built
CLE 112.45–116.15 OKC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexOKC +7.0 vs CLE +4.0 · pred margin +4.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.3 vs +1.8 · back-to-back: OKC, CLE · model OKC 116.6–110.9 CLE
- Home field+2.8 pts to OKC
- RecordOKC 6-2 · CLE 4-4
- Market priorBlended 67% toward OKC -3.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 20 | 24 | 30 | 42 | 116 |
| OKC | 37 | 23 | 28 | 36 | 124 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 1:22105–117Aday Mara makes tip in dunk
3PT4th Quarter 1:15108–117Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointer
- 3PT4th Quarter 46.7111–117
Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointer
- FT4th Quarter 40.3111–118
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 40.3111–119
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 38.5113–119
Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Mario Hezonja assists)
- FT4th Quarter 35.6113–120
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 35.6113–121
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 26.7113–122
Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 18.1116–122
Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)
- FT4th Quarter 15.0116–123
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.0116–124
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| CLE | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. Allen C · #31 | 7 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -8 |
 E. Mobley C · #4 | 33 | 16 | 7-15 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | -1 |
 J. Harden G · #1 | 35 | 19 | 5-16 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
 D. Mitchell G · #45 | 33 | 27 | 10-17 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | +1 |
 T. Proctor G · #24 | 22 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
 M. Hezonja F · #33 | 23 | 12 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | -8 |
 T. Enaruna F · #21 | 16 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 |
 T. Bryant C · #3 | 13 | 8 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 |
 S. Merrill G · #5 | 27 | 10 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 |
 C. Porter Jr. G · #9 | 14 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 |
 M. Thomas G · #15 | 18 | 9 | 3-9 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 |
 R. Minix F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 116 | 40-93 | 19-49 | 17-19 | 45 | 19 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 35 | 29 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLE | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 40-93 | 41-89 |
| FG% | 43 | 46 |
| 3PT | 19-49 | 15-36 |
| 3P% | 39 | 42 |
| FT | 17-19 | 27-35 |
| FT% | 89 | 77 |
| REB | 45 | 47 |
| OR | 10 | 8 |
| DR | 35 | 39 |
| AST | 19 | 25 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 4 |
| TO | 12 | 9 |
| TTO | 2 | 1 |
| ToTO | 14 | 10 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 12 | 15 |
| FBPs | 12 | 21 |
| PIP | 40 | 44 |
| PF | 29 | 18 |
| LL | 0 | 25 |
| LC | 0 | 0 |
| LPCT | 0 | 99 |
At lock CLE 112.45–116.15 OKC · OKC by 3.7 pts vs OKC -2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Williams · OKC
13 PTS · covers 8.5J. Allen · CLE
7 MIN · 0-1 FGI. Hartenstein · OKC
26 MIN · 3 PTSShai Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
STAT · 35 MIN · 42 PTS · 11-26 FG · 5-11 3PTDonovan Mitchell · CLE
STAT · 33 MIN · 27 PTS · 10-17 FG · 5-10 3PTAjay Mitchell · OKC
STAT · 32 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-17 FG · 1-3 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Williams Over 8.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cavaliers vs Thunder pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OKC -2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day