Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
Final · MyMi
102–109Last shot · AJ Green misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected MIL 105.59–118.19 BOS
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 793891517
- Winner: Celtics (89%)
- Score error (both teams)14
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tatum points | — | 23 | 0 | off -23 |
| T. Herro points | — | 21 | 25 | off 4 |
| D. White points | — | 16 | 24 | off 8 |
| R. Rollins points | — | 17 | 13 | off -4 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs BOS
The model
How this number was built
MIL 105.59–118.19 BOS · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexBOS +7.5 vs MIL -8.3 · pred margin +13.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +7.0 vs -8.0 · back-to-back: BOS, MIL · model BOS 118.0–100.2 MIL
- Home field+2.8 pts to BOS
- RecordBOS 6-2 · MIL 1-7
- Market priorBlended 81% toward BOS -12.5 / total 222.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 14 | 27 | 38 | 23 | 102 |
| BOS | 28 | 34 | 25 | 22 | 109 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 4:5496–97Paul George makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 4:0497–97Kyle Kuzma makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:0697–99
Neemias Queta makes 2-foot layup (Paul George assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:2297–101
Derrick White makes 1-foot layup (Baylor Scheierman assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:2297–102
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:4997–104
Derrick White makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Neemias Queta assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:4098–104
Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:4099–104
Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:2399–107
Paul George makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- 3PT4th Quarter 1:14102–107
Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT4th Quarter 19.8102–108
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 19.8102–109
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Kuzma F · #18 | 27 | 6 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -8 |
 J. Jaquez Jr. F · #24 | 31 | 18 | 7-16 | 4-6 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 |
 M. Turner C · #3 | 36 | 12 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | -1 |
 T. Herro G · #11 | 33 | 25 | 8-17 | 4-10 | 5-5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -8 |
 B. Burries G · #0 | 22 | 9 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 |
 O. Dieng F · #21 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 N. Ament F · #15 | 18 | 9 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +5 |
 J. Sims C · #00 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 K. Ware C · #9 | 16 | 2 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -6 |
 A. Green G · #20 | 20 | 5 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 |
 R. Rollins G · #13 | 24 | 13 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | +3 |
 K. Jakucionis G · #25 | 12 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -15 |
 B. Markovic F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. LeVert G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 G. Trent Jr. G · #5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 102 | 35-85 | 19-47 | 13-19 | 45 | 28 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIL | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 35-85 | 37-91 |
| FG% | 41 | 41 |
| 3PT | 19-47 | 16-39 |
| 3P% | 40 | 41 |
| FT | 13-19 | 19-25 |
| FT% | 68 | 76 |
| REB | 45 | 54 |
| OR | 11 | 19 |
| DR | 34 | 35 |
| AST | 28 | 24 |
| STL | 6 | 8 |
| BLK | 4 | 6 |
| TO | 14 | 12 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 15 | 12 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 17 | 16 |
| FBPs | 14 | 9 |
| PIP | 30 | 34 |
| PF | 22 | 19 |
| LL | 1 | 22 |
| LC | 4 | 4 |
| LPCT | 1 | 93 |
At lock MIL 105.59–118.19 BOS · BOS by 12.6 pts vs BOS -11.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Green · MIL
5 PTS · needs 1.5 moreK. Kuzma · MIL
27 MIN · 6 PTSP. George · BOS
35 MIN · 25 PTSTyler Herro · MIL
STAT · 33 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-17 FG · 4-10 3PTDerrick White · BOS
STAT · 36 MIN · 24 PTS · 7-18 FG · 1-7 3PTJaime Jaquez Jr. · MIL
STAT · 31 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-16 FG · 4-6 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · A. Green Over 6.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bucks vs Celtics pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is BOS -11.5, with a 51% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day