Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons
Final · ESPN
112–106Last shot · Ausar Thompson misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected PHI 111.00–112.00 DET
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 3, 8:29 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 693225803
- Winner: Pistons (59%)
- Spread: DET -1.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 218.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)9
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Brown points | — | 27 | 30 | off 3 |
| C. Cunningham points | — | 23 | 26 | off 3 |
| D. Robinson points | — | 13 | 27 | off 14 |
| T. Maxey points | — | 28 | 19 | off -9 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: PHI vs DET
The model
How this number was built
PHI 111.00–112.00 DET · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDET +3.9 vs PHI +2.7 · pred margin +3.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +5.8 vs +0.7 · back-to-back: DET, PHI · model DET 116.4–109.1 PHI
- Home field+2.8 pts to DET
- RecordDET 6-2 · PHI 8-1
- Market priorBlended 67% toward DET -2.5 / total 219.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 27 | 35 | 21 | 112 |
| DET | 21 | 21 | 33 | 31 | 106 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 1:36106–99Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:36106–100
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:05106–102
Cade Cunningham makes driving layup
FT4th Quarter 23.7107–102Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 23.7108–102
Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 21.8108–103
Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 21.8108–104
Duncan Robinson makes free throw 3 of 3
- FT4th Quarter 20.2109–104
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 20.2110–104
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 13.3110–106
John Collins makes 2-foot dunk (Cade Cunningham assists)
- FT4th Quarter 12.5111–106
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 12.5112–106
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| PHI | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. James F · #23 | 33 | 13 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | +1 |
 J. Embiid C · #21 | 33 | 26 | 8-18 | 0-3 | 10-10 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | -6 |
 J. Brown G · #7 | 37 | 30 | 11-19 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +6 |
 T. Maxey G · #0 | 34 | 19 | 5-16 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 |
 V. Edgecombe G · #77 | 35 | 11 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +2 |
 D. Wade F · #45 | 22 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +7 |
 A. Bona C · #30 | 15 | 5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +9 |
 K. Caldwell-Pope G · #1 | 21 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +9 |
 A. Simons G · #5 | 10 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +6 |
 J. Walker F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Edwards F · #11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 L. Philon Jr. G · #00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 112 | 39-86 | 9-24 | 25-28 | 48 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 39 | 18 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PHI | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 39-86 | 38-83 |
| FG% | 45 | 46 |
| 3PT | 9-24 | 12-34 |
| 3P% | 38 | 35 |
| FT | 25-28 | 18-23 |
| FT% | 89 | 78 |
| REB | 48 | 40 |
| OR | 9 | 4 |
| DR | 39 | 36 |
| AST | 23 | 25 |
| STL | 6 | 5 |
| BLK | 2 | 6 |
| TO | 12 | 12 |
| TTO | 2 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 12 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| TECH | 1 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 17 | 15 |
| FBPs | 14 | 22 |
| PIP | 44 | 46 |
| PF | 18 | 24 |
| LL | 18 | 6 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 84 | 14 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects DET by 1.00, which also covers PHI +2.5.
Why Grok Expert likes PHI +2.5: 7-1 Philly has won four straight behind Maxey (29.1 ppg) and Embiid, and Detroit is without starting center Jalen Duren (hamstring) and Isaiah Joe. Taking the points with the better team.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Maxey has scored 26+ in all 8 games (29.1 ppg on 20.4 shots in 37.5 minutes) and dropped 29 on Detroit in the first meeting. The line sits 2.5 points under his season low, and Detroit is without Jalen Duren and Isaiah Joe.
At lock PHI 111.00–112.00 DET · DET by 1.0 pts vs PHI +2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Green · DET
1 PTS · needs 5.5 moreL. James · PHI
33 MIN · 13 PTSD. Robinson · DET
37 MIN · 27 PTSJaylen Brown · PHI
STAT · 37 MIN · 30 PTS · 11-19 FG · 3-5 3PTJoel Embiid · PHI
STAT · 33 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-18 FG · 0-3 3PTCade Cunningham · DET
STAT · 40 MIN · 26 PTS · 9-22 FG · 1-9 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Green Over 6.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
76ers vs Pistons pick result · Nov 4, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is PHI +2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day