New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies
Final/OT · NBA League Pass
135–134Last shot · Ty Jerome misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
At lock: projected NO 115.69–120.81 MEM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 760483374
- Winner: Grizzlies (66%)
- Spread: NO +6.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 235.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)32
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Reese points | — | 12 | 0 | off -12 |
| C. Boozer points | — | 15 | 18 | off 3 |
| J. Grant points | — | 17 | 11 | off -6 |
| T. Murphy III points | — | 21 | 18 | off -3 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NO vs MEM
The model
How this number was built
NO 115.69–120.81 MEM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexMEM -0.0 vs NO -7.3 · pred margin +6.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.1 vs -5.9 · back-to-back: MEM, NO · model MEM 122.9–117.0 NO
- Home field+2.8 pts to MEM
- RecordMEM 6-1 · NO 3-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward MEM -5.5 / total 231.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 34 | 25 | 41 | 24 | 11 | 135 |
| MEM | 31 | 31 | 33 | 29 | 10 | 134 |
Scoring plays
SCOREOT 3:36126–126Zion Williamson makes driving layup
- FTOT 3:36127–126
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 1
3PTOT 3:17127–129Ty Jerome makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshot
- SCOREOT 2:53129–129
Zion Williamson makes 3-foot two point shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
- FTOT 2:11130–129
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 2:11131–129
Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCOREOT 1:16133–129
Zion Williamson makes 17-foot step back jumpshot
- SCOREOT 1:05133–131
Ty Jerome makes driving layup
- SCOREOT 18.8133–133
Ty Jerome makes driving layup
- FTOT 18.8133–134
Ty Jerome makes free throw 1 of 1
- FTOT 7.3134–134
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2
- FTOT 7.3135–134
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| NO | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 H. Jones F · #2 | 28 | 9 | 3-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +9 |
 Z. Williamson F · #1 | 35 | 25 | 9-15 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 |
 T. Murphy III F · #25 | 40 | 18 | 5-11 | 3-5 | 5-5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -4 |
 K. Matkovic F · #17 | 29 | 25 | 9-13 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +7 |
 J. Fears G · #0 | 38 | 12 | 5-17 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 |
 S. Bey F · #41 | 36 | 18 | 7-16 | 2-8 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -7 |
 T. Watford F · #9 | 16 | 4 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +5 |
 D. Queen C · #22 | 24 | 20 | 7-13 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | -6 |
 B. McGowens G · #11 | 6 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 |
 B. Mathurin G · #24 | 13 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +5 |
 J. Reese F · #13 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 D. Jordan C · #6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 A. Johnson G · #14 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 135 | 48-101 | 14-37 | 25-30 | 47 | 27 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 33 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NO | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 48-101 | 47-91 |
| FG% | 48 | 52 |
| 3PT | 14-37 | 18-40 |
| 3P% | 38 | 45 |
| FT | 25-30 | 22-27 |
| FT% | 83 | 81 |
| REB | 47 | 49 |
| OR | 14 | 11 |
| DR | 33 | 38 |
| AST | 27 | 30 |
| STL | 8 | 5 |
| BLK | 3 | 9 |
| TO | 8 | 16 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 8 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 7 | 21 |
| FBPs | 17 | 20 |
| PIP | 62 | 54 |
| PF | 21 | 25 |
| LL | 10 | 7 |
| LC | 16 | 16 |
| LPCT | 76 | 17 |
At lock NO 115.69–120.81 MEM · MEM by 5.1 pts vs NO +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp K. Matkovic · NO
25 PTS · covers 6.5H. Jones · NO
28 MIN · 9 PTSC. Coward · MEM
31 MIN · 10 PTSTy Jerome · MEM
STAT · 37 MIN · 40 PTS · 14-22 FG · 5-6 3PTZion Williamson · NO
STAT · 35 MIN · 25 PTS · 9-15 FG · 7-9 FTDerik Queen · NO
STAT · 24 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. Matkovic Over 6.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is NO +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day