Detroit Pistons at Charlotte Hornets
Final · NBA League Pass
124–91Last shot · Isaac Jones makes tip shot
At lock: projected DET 108.79–105.49 CHA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2673279035
- Winner: Pistons (61%)
- Spread: CHA +4.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 210.5 (71%)
- Score error (both teams)30
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Miller points | — | 21 | 17 | off -4 |
| C. Cunningham points | — | 23 | 33 | off 10 |
| G. Allen points | — | 17 | 11 | off -6 |
| D. Robinson points | — | 13 | 24 | off 11 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: DET vs CHA
The model
How this number was built
DET 108.79–105.49 CHA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCHA -5.3 vs DET +3.9 · pred margin -5.6
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.7 vs +5.8 · back-to-back: CHA, DET · model CHA 105.7–110.7 DET
- Home field+2.8 pts to CHA
- RecordCHA 3-5 · DET 6-1
- Market priorBlended 68% toward DET -5.5 / total 209.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 27 | 38 | 33 | 26 | 124 |
| CHA | 24 | 30 | 21 | 16 | 91 |
Scoring plays
LAYUP SHOT4th Quarter 7:32109–83Hannes Steinbach makes layup (Christian Anderson assists)
3PT4th Quarter 7:13112–83Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three pointer (Daniss Jenkins assists)
- FT4th Quarter 6:54113–83
Ausar Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 6:28115–83
Chaz Lanier makes 1-foot layup (Ausar Thompson assists)
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 5:45115–85
Christian Anderson makes tip shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:00118–85
Chaz Lanier makes 32-foot three point jumper (Ebuka Okorie assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:23118–87
Christian Anderson makes 1-foot layup (Hannes Steinbach assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:23118–88
Christian Anderson makes free throw 1 of 1
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:52118–91
Christian Anderson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Liam McNeeley assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:45120–91
Ebuka Okorie makes driving layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:25122–91
Ebuka Okorie makes driving layup
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 40.8124–91
Isaac Jones makes tip shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| DET | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 D. Robinson F · #55 | 32 | 24 | 8-11 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +25 |
 J. Collins F · #20 | 19 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
 P. Reed F · #7 | 28 | 11 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +23 |
 C. Cunningham G · #2 | 27 | 33 | 13-20 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +19 |
 A. Thompson G · #9 | 26 | 14 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +15 |
 T. Smith F · #35 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 |
 R. Holland II F · #5 | 20 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +13 |
 I. Jones C · #13 | 6 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
 J. Green G · #31 | 20 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +24 |
 K. Huerter G · #27 | 20 | 9 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +20 |
 C. Lanier G · #8 | 7 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 |
 D. Jenkins G · #24 | 23 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +14 |
 E. Okorie G · #23 | 6 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 |
 T. Prince F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 124 | 47-82 | 18-37 | 12-15 | 37 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DET | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 47-82 | 32-84 |
| FG% | 57 | 38 |
| 3PT | 18-37 | 13-44 |
| 3P% | 49 | 30 |
| FT | 12-15 | 14-19 |
| FT% | 80 | 74 |
| REB | 37 | 44 |
| OR | 6 | 18 |
| DR | 31 | 26 |
| AST | 30 | 19 |
| STL | 15 | 8 |
| BLK | 7 | 6 |
| TO | 14 | 25 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 15 | 27 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| FLAG | 1 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 9 | 37 |
| FBPs | 27 | 4 |
| PIP | 52 | 36 |
| PF | 19 | 17 |
| LL | 33 | 3 |
| LC | 7 | 7 |
| LPCT | 85 | 11 |
At lock DET 108.79–105.49 CHA · DET by 3.3 pts vs CHA +4.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp S. James · CHA
11 PTS · covers 5.5D. Robinson · DET
32 MIN · 24 PTSM. Diabate · CHA
24 MIN · 7 PTSCade Cunningham · DET
STAT · 27 MIN · 33 PTS · 13-20 FG · 4-7 3PTBrandon Miller · CHA
STAT · 31 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-18 FG · 3-11 3PTAusar Thompson · DET
STAT · 26 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-7 FG · 4-5 FT
Data-Driven Pick · S. James Over 5.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Pistons vs Hornets pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is CHA +4.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day