Oklahoma City Thunder at Cleveland Cavaliers
Final · NBCSN
117–112Last shot · Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected OKC 112.43–115.43 CLE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2622946178
- Winner: Cavaliers (60%)
- Spread: OKC +4.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 227.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)8
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mitchell points | — | 14 | 20 | off 6 |
| D. Mitchell points | — | 28 | 17 | off -11 |
| J. Harden points | — | 22 | 14 | off -8 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 30 | 43 | off 13 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs CLE
The model
How this number was built
OKC 112.43–115.43 CLE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexCLE +4.0 vs OKC +7.0 · pred margin +2.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +1.8 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: CLE, OKC · model CLE 112.9–114.7 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to CLE
- RecordCLE 4-3 · OKC 5-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward CLE -4.5 / total 229.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 26 | 33 | 31 | 27 | 117 |
| CLE | 30 | 18 | 36 | 28 | 112 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 3:43105–105Evan Mobley makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 3:43105–106
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:21105–108
Evan Mobley makes layup (Donovan Mitchell assists)
FT4th Quarter 3:21106–108Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throw
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:09107–108
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot turnaround jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 2:47107–109
Evan Mobley makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:51110–109
Isaiah Hartenstein makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:16112–109
Ajay Mitchell makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:01112–112
Sam Merrill makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 32.6115–112
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT4th Quarter 15.4116–112
Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 15.4117–112
Ajay Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OKC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jay. Williams F · #6 | 20 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -14 |
 I. Hartenstein C · #55 | 28 | 5 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 2 | -7 |
 K. Williams G · #34 | 31 | 12 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2 | 39 | 43 | 14-35 | 4-8 | 11-12 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +7 |
 A. Mitchell G · #25 | 35 | 20 | 7-16 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 |
 A. Mara C · #15 | 20 | 10 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 4 | +8 |
 M. Peavy G · #16 | 16 | 8 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 |
 J. McCain G · #3 | 27 | 7 | 3-11 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +5 |
 J. Dix G · #21 | 12 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +10 |
 B. Stirtz G · #14 | 12 | 9 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +9 |
 B. Barnhizer F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 117 | 42-98 | 12-31 | 21-23 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 39 | 19 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 42-98 | 40-90 |
| FG% | 43 | 44 |
| 3PT | 12-31 | 18-49 |
| 3P% | 39 | 37 |
| FT | 21-23 | 14-24 |
| FT% | 91 | 58 |
| REB | 54 | 46 |
| OR | 15 | 11 |
| DR | 39 | 35 |
| AST | 18 | 31 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 3 |
| TO | 8 | 7 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 8 | 8 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| TECH | 0 | 2 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 8 | 10 |
| FBPs | 13 | 7 |
| PIP | 50 | 30 |
| PF | 19 | 19 |
| LL | 14 | 5 |
| LC | 23 | 23 |
| LPCT | 61 | 33 |
At lock OKC 112.43–115.43 CLE · CLE by 3.0 pts vs OKC +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Allen · CLE
14 PTS · covers 12.5Jay. Williams · OKC
20 MIN · 3 PTSShai Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
STAT · 39 MIN · 43 PTS · 14-35 FG · 4-8 3PTAjay Mitchell · OKC
STAT · 35 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-16 FG · 0-3 3PTDonovan Mitchell · CLE
STAT · 36 MIN · 17 PTS · 6-17 FG · 4-9 3PTMeleek Thomas · CLE
STAT · 26 MIN · 17 PTS · 7-16 FG · 3-9 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Allen Over 12.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Cavaliers pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is OKC +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day