Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Lakers
Final · NBA League Pass
125–131Last shot · Jamison Battle makes 3-foot dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)
At lock: projected TOR 112.23–115.73 LAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2639723797
- Winner: Lakers (62%)
- Spread: TOR +4.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 227.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)27
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Barnes points | — | 18 | 29 | off 11 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 24 | 19 | off -5 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 34 | 45 | off 11 |
| I. Quickley points | — | 17 | 12 | off -5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TOR vs LAL
The model
How this number was built
TOR 112.23–115.73 LAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAL +5.0 vs TOR -1.6 · pred margin +4.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.9 vs +1.6 · back-to-back: LAL, TOR · model LAL 116.7–112.3 TOR
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAL
- RecordLAL 5-2 · TOR 3-3
- Market priorBlended 68% toward LAL -3.5 / total 224.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 23 | 31 | 28 | 43 | 125 |
| LAL | 36 | 30 | 38 | 27 | 131 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 1:02115–124Jamison Battle makes 28-foot running jump shot (Jaden Bradley assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 55.2117–124
Jamison Battle makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Alijah Martin assists)
FT4th Quarter 54.6117–125Jaden Hardy makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 43.7119–125
Jaden Bradley makes 1-foot reverse layup (Alijah Martin assists)
- FT4th Quarter 43.7120–125
Jaden Bradley makes free throw 1 of 1
- DUNK SHOT4th Quarter 36.4120–127
Walker Kessler makes 1-foot dunk (Luka Doncic assists)
- FT4th Quarter 25.4120–128
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 25.4120–129
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 12.1123–129
Jamison Battle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)
- FT4th Quarter 6.9123–130
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 6.9123–131
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1.8125–131
Jamison Battle makes 3-foot dunk (Kyle Anderson assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| TOR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 R. Barrett F · #9 | 32 | 22 | 9-18 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 4 | +9 |
 T. Jackson-Davis F · #32 | 9 | 5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -7 |
 S. Barnes F · #4 | 36 | 29 | 11-20 | 0-3 | 7-13 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 | -9 |
 I. Quickley G · #5 | 33 | 12 | 3-13 | 3-11 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +8 |
 J. Walter G · #14 | 33 | 11 | 4-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -10 |
 K. Anderson F · #13 | 4 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +9 |
 J. Battle F · #77 | 17 | 20 | 7-14 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -4 |
 C. Murray-Boyles F · #30 | 20 | 4 | 1-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -14 |
 A. Graves F · #22 | 10 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 |
 J. Shead G · #1 | 25 | 9 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -27 |
 J. Bradley G · #8 | 4 | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +9 |
 A. Martin G · #55 | 16 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +10 |
 J. Poeltl C · #19 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 125 | 45-105 | 17-54 | 18-25 | 47 | 35 | 15 | 14 | 1 | 22 | 25 | 26 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 45-105 | 43-80 |
| FG% | 43 | 54 |
| 3PT | 17-54 | 18-37 |
| 3P% | 31 | 49 |
| FT | 18-25 | 27-32 |
| FT% | 72 | 84 |
| REB | 47 | 45 |
| OR | 22 | 9 |
| DR | 25 | 36 |
| AST | 35 | 26 |
| STL | 14 | 11 |
| BLK | 1 | 7 |
| TO | 15 | 22 |
| TTO | 0 | 2 |
| ToTO | 15 | 24 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 23 | 30 |
| FBPs | 23 | 20 |
| PIP | 46 | 48 |
| PF | 26 | 21 |
| LL | 5 | 26 |
| LC | 1 | 1 |
| LPCT | 5 | 93 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Barnes has stayed at 5 assists or fewer in all 5 regular-season games (5, 4, 3, 5, 5; 4.4 avg) and every preseason game, even at 32+ minutes. Quickley and Shead run the offense and Barnes has been a scorer first (24 ppg), so 6+ needs a career-type passing night.
At lock TOR 112.23–115.73 LAL · LAL by 3.5 pts vs TOR +4.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp J. Shead · TOR
9 PTS · covers 6.5R. Barrett · TOR
32 MIN · 22 PTSJ. LaRavia · LAL
25 MIN · 8 PTSLuka Doncic · LAL
STAT · 35 MIN · 45 PTS · 12-23 FG · 8-12 3PTScottie Barnes · TOR
STAT · 36 MIN · 29 PTS · 11-20 FG · 0-3 3PTJamison Battle · TOR
STAT · 17 MIN · 20 PTS · 7-14 FG · 4-10 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Shead Over 6.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Raptors vs Lakers pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is TOR +4.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day