Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic
Final · NBA League Pass
108–97Last shot · Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shot
At lock: projected BOS 115.01–109.32 ORL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2555835702
- Winner: Celtics (69%)
- Spread: ORL +6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)20
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Tatum points | — | 23 | 32 | off 9 |
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 19 | off 0 |
| D. White points | — | 16 | 12 | off -4 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 14 | off -7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BOS vs ORL
The model
How this number was built
BOS 115.01–109.32 ORL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexORL -0.3 vs BOS +7.5 · pred margin -6.2
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -1.4 vs +7.0 · back-to-back: ORL, BOS · model ORL 105.4–112.4 BOS
- Home field+2.8 pts to ORL
- RecordORL 2-4 · BOS 5-1
- Market priorBlended 68% toward BOS -6.5 / total 221.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 24 | 31 | 22 | 31 | 108 |
| ORL | 23 | 27 | 24 | 23 | 97 |
Scoring plays
3PT4th Quarter 4:4897–88Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:2497–91
Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot running jump shot (Franz Wagner assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:5997–93
Desmond Bane makes two point shot
SCORE4th Quarter 3:4199–93Jayson Tatum makes 17-foot pullup jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:05101–93
Jayson Tatum makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
- FT4th Quarter 2:53101–94
Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:53101–95
Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:17103–95
Neemias Queta makes 2-foot layup (Jayson Tatum assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:32106–95
Paul George makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:00106–97
Tristan da Silva makes two point shot
- FT4th Quarter 47.6107–97
Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 47.6108–97
Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| BOS | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 P. George F · #13 | 33 | 17 | 6-14 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +10 |
 J. Tatum F · #0 | 34 | 32 | 8-19 | 1-5 | 15-17 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +7 |
 N. Queta C · #88 | 27 | 8 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 |
 D. White G · #9 | 34 | 12 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +18 |
 H. Gonzalez G · #28 | 14 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
 S. Hauser F · #30 | 17 | 3 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +2 |
 L. Garza C · #52 | 21 | 12 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +11 |
 P. Pritchard G · #11 | 27 | 7 | 3-11 | 0-7 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +3 |
 B. Scheierman G · #55 | 20 | 10 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +10 |
 J. Walsh G · #27 | 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 |
 A. Williams F · #77 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. Cenac Jr. F · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 M. Conley G · #45 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Harper Jr. G · #8 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 108 | 37-84 | 12-44 | 22-26 | 41 | 29 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BOS | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 37-84 | 34-81 |
| FG% | 44 | 42 |
| 3PT | 12-44 | 14-39 |
| 3P% | 27 | 36 |
| FT | 22-26 | 15-19 |
| FT% | 85 | 79 |
| REB | 41 | 43 |
| OR | 14 | 13 |
| DR | 27 | 30 |
| AST | 29 | 24 |
| STL | 9 | 6 |
| BLK | 7 | 2 |
| TO | 12 | 16 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 13 | 18 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 16 | 21 |
| FBPs | 9 | 11 |
| PIP | 38 | 36 |
| PF | 22 | 22 |
| LL | 15 | 9 |
| LC | 5 | 5 |
| LPCT | 70 | 27 |
At lock BOS 115.01–109.32 ORL · BOS by 5.7 pts vs ORL +6.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp J. Richardson · ORL
4 PTS · needs 4.5 moreP. George · BOS
33 MIN · 17 PTSF. Wagner · ORL
40 MIN · 14 PTSJayson Tatum · BOS
STAT · 34 MIN · 32 PTS · 8-19 FG · 1-5 3PTAnthony Black · ORL
STAT · 33 MIN · 23 PTS · 6-12 FG · 1-5 3PTTristan da Silva · ORL
STAT · 35 MIN · 23 PTS · 9-14 FG · 5-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · J. Richardson Over 8.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Celtics vs Magic pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is ORL +6.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day