Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs
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At lock SAC 107.09–124.45 SA · SA by 17.4 pts vs SAC +18.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
Data-Driven Pick · D. Vassell Over 11.5 pts
At lock: projected SAC 107.09–124.45 SA
Model vs market
Gap: -3.7 margin, +1.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SAC vs SA
Kings vs Spurs prediction · Oct 27, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +18.5, with a 54% model probability. The model projected Kings 107.1, Spurs 124.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Spurs 93%, Kings 7%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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