Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers
Final · KSBI
112–113Last shot · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
At lock: projected OKC 114.59–108.10 LAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 564073549
- Winner: Thunder (70%)
- Spread: LAC +7.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 222.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)7
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Hartenstein points | — | 8 | 21 | off 13 |
| R. Hachimura points | — | 12 | 7 | off -5 |
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander points | — | 30 | 40 | off 10 |
| D. Garland points | — | 19 | 24 | off 5 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs LAC
The model
How this number was built
OKC 114.59–108.10 LAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAC -5.1 vs OKC +7.0 · pred margin -6.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -0.5 vs +5.3 · back-to-back: LAC, OKC · model LAC 109.4–113.6 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAC
- RecordLAC 3-8 · OKC 8-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OKC -6.5 / total 221.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 27 | 17 | 40 | 28 | 112 |
| LAC | 33 | 24 | 25 | 31 | 113 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 4:45102–101Gradey Dick makes 4-foot dunk (Darius Garland assists)
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 3:59105–101Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Dix assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:42105–103
Brook Lopez makes driving layup (Kris Dunn assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 3:28107–103
Isaiah Hartenstein makes driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
- 3PT4th Quarter 3:18107–106
Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer
- 3PT4th Quarter 3:01110–106
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
- FT4th Quarter 2:43111–106
Alex Caruso makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:43112–106
Alex Caruso makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:21112–108
Brook Lopez makes layup (Darius Garland assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:25112–110
Brook Lopez makes 12-foot fade away jump shot (Darius Garland assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 50.4112–112
Darius Garland makes driving layup (Brook Lopez assists)
- FT4th Quarter 50.4112–113
Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 1
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| OKC | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 I. Hartenstein C · #55 | 30 | 21 | 9-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 4 | +13 |
 A. Mara C · #15 | 21 | 10 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -20 |
 K. Williams G · #34 | 35 | 8 | 4-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +10 |
 S. Gilgeous-Alexander G · #2 | 39 | 40 | 15-26 | 2-4 | 8-11 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 |
 J. McCain G · #3 | 31 | 23 | 8-17 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +3 |
 A. Caruso G · #9 | 27 | 5 | 1-9 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +8 |
 N. Clifford G · #18 | 12 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 |
 J. Dix G · #21 | 17 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 |
 N. Topic G · #44 | 16 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -5 |
 B. Stirtz G · #14 | 12 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 |
 B. Barnhizer F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 112 | 44-94 | 11-35 | 13-19 | 45 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 17 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 44-94 | 40-88 |
| FG% | 47 | 45 |
| 3PT | 11-35 | 16-41 |
| 3P% | 31 | 39 |
| FT | 13-19 | 17-21 |
| FT% | 68 | 81 |
| REB | 45 | 40 |
| OR | 11 | 10 |
| DR | 34 | 30 |
| AST | 27 | 28 |
| STL | 8 | 7 |
| BLK | 4 | 7 |
| TO | 12 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 0 |
| ToTO | 13 | 11 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 15 | 11 |
| FBPs | 10 | 9 |
| PIP | 58 | 40 |
| PF | 17 | 20 |
| LL | 7 | 15 |
| LC | 6 | 6 |
| LPCT | 35 | 61 |
Model projected OKC 114.59 – 108.10 LAC at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -0.7%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop I. Hartenstein · OKC
16 REB · over 10.5D. Jones Jr. · LAC
29 MIN · 14 PTSShai Gilgeous-Alexander · OKC
STAT · 39 MIN · 40 PTS · 15-26 FG · 2-4 3PTBrook Lopez · LAC
STAT · 31 MIN · 26 PTS · 11-21 FG · 3-8 3PTDarius Garland · LAC
STAT · 37 MIN · 24 PTS · 8-17 FG · 3-7 3PTJared McCain · OKC
STAT · 31 MIN · 23 PTS · 8-17 FG · 7-11 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · I. Hartenstein Under 10.5 reb
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Clippers pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day