Milwaukee Bucks at Orlando Magic
Final · MyMi
99–107Last shot · Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes tip shot
At lock: projected MIL 107.55–116.79 ORL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 12, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 840848782
- Winner: Magic (77%)
- Spread: MIL +9.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 223.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Bane points | — | 19 | 21 | off 2 |
| F. Wagner points | — | 21 | 35 | off 14 |
| T. Herro points | — | 21 | 18 | off -3 |
| R. Rollins points | — | 15 | 8 | off -7 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIL vs ORL
The model
How this number was built
MIL 107.55–116.79 ORL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexORL -0.3 vs MIL -8.3 · pred margin +9.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -1.4 vs -8.0 · back-to-back: ORL, MIL · model ORL 116.3–107.5 MIL
- Home field+2.8 pts to ORL
- RecordORL 5-7 · MIL 1-12
- Market priorBlended 65% toward ORL -9.5 / total 223.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 15 | 22 | 35 | 27 | 99 |
| ORL | 23 | 29 | 32 | 23 | 107 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 2:3486–100Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 2:1889–100Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:5091–100
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes running layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:3691–102
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 3-foot alley oop dunk (Franz Wagner assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:3692–102
Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 1
- FT4th Quarter 1:3693–102
Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:3694–102
Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 42.994–104
Franz Wagner makes running layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 22.294–106
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Tristan da Silva assists)
- FT4th Quarter 22.294–107
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1
- 3PT4th Quarter 16.797–107
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 27-foot three pointer
- TIP SHOT4th Quarter 0.099–107
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes tip shot
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIL | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 K. Kuzma F · #18 | 31 | 14 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 7-15 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 |
 O. Dieng F · #21 | 5 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -8 |
 M. Turner C · #3 | 31 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -3 |
 T. Herro G · #11 | 34 | 18 | 5-17 | 2-7 | 6-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 |
 B. Burries G · #0 | 19 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -4 |
 J. Jaquez Jr. F · #24 | 28 | 22 | 8-15 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -3 |
 N. Ament F · #15 | 22 | 9 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
 K. Ware C · #9 | 17 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -5 |
 G. Trent Jr. G · #5 | 16 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 |
 A. Green G · #20 | 8 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
 R. Rollins G · #13 | 29 | 8 | 3-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | -4 |
 B. Markovic F · #23 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Sims C · #00 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 C. LeVert G · #12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Jakucionis G · #25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 99 | 32-82 | 17-44 | 18-31 | 45 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 32 | 21 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIL | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 32-82 | 39-87 |
| FG% | 39 | 45 |
| 3PT | 17-44 | 15-50 |
| 3P% | 39 | 30 |
| FT | 18-31 | 14-14 |
| FT% | 58 | 100 |
| REB | 45 | 45 |
| OR | 13 | 7 |
| DR | 32 | 38 |
| AST | 20 | 29 |
| STL | 11 | 7 |
| BLK | 3 | 6 |
| TO | 15 | 13 |
| TTO | 1 | 1 |
| ToTO | 16 | 14 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 21 | 16 |
| FBPs | 4 | 19 |
| PIP | 26 | 44 |
| PF | 21 | 24 |
| LL | 1 | 20 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 1 | 96 |
Model projected MIL 107.55 – 116.79 ORL at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.1%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
Prop T. Herro · MIL
18 PTS · under 21.5K. Kuzma · MIL
31 MIN · 14 PTSF. Wagner · ORL
36 MIN · 35 PTSJaime Jaquez Jr. · MIL
STAT · 28 MIN · 22 PTS · 8-15 FG · 5-7 3PTDesmond Bane · ORL
STAT · 35 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-13 FG · 6-10 3PTMyles Turner · MIL
STAT · 31 MIN · 14 PTS · 5-9 FG · 4-7 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · T. Herro Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bucks vs Magic pick result · Nov 13, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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