San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings
Final · DAZN SAS
124–109Last shot · Leaky Black misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected SA 122.23–107.70 SAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 807293544
- Winner: Spurs (89%)
- Spread: SAC +15.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 229.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)3
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vassell points | — | 13 | 19 | off 6 |
| D. Acuff Jr. points | — | 26 | 22 | off -4 |
| D. Fox points | — | 18 | 9 | off -9 |
| Z. LaVine points | — | 20 | 14 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: SA vs SAC
The model
How this number was built
SA 122.23–107.70 SAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSAC -9.6 vs SA +10.2 · pred margin -17.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -7.7 vs +8.4 · back-to-back: SAC, SA · model SAC 106.3–121.3 SA
- Home field+2.8 pts to SAC
- RecordSAC 1-8 · SA 7-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SA -17.5 / total 231.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 38 | 37 | 24 | 25 | 124 |
| SAC | 29 | 27 | 24 | 29 | 109 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 3:31118–97Julian Champagnie makes two point shot (Luke Kornet assists)
SCORE4th Quarter 3:06118–99Nique Clifford makes 17-foot step back jumpshot (Dylan Cardwell assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:38118–101
Dylan Cardwell makes alley oop layup (Nique Clifford assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 2:17120–101
Harrison Barnes makes 9-foot pullup jump shot
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:59120–104
Leaky Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:19120–105
Dylan Cardwell makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:19120–106
Dylan Cardwell makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:06121–106
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:06122–106
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 49.5122–109
Nique Clifford makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)
- FT4th Quarter 7.5123–109
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 7.5124–109
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| SA | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 V. Wembanyama F · #1 | 26 | 30 | 10-18 | 4-6 | 6-9 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | +31 |
 D. Fox G · #4 | 26 | 9 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +13 |
 D. Vassell G · #24 | 27 | 19 | 6-10 | 5-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +5 |
 S. Castle G · #5 | 28 | 19 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 |
 D. Harper G · #2 | 28 | 19 | 5-10 | 1-2 | 8-9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +22 |
 H. Barnes F · #40 | 19 | 13 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +4 |
 K. Johnson F · #3 | 27 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +27 |
 J. Champagnie F · #30 | 22 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | +12 |
 D. Jones Garcia F · #25 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
 C. Bryant F · #11 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 |
 L. Kornet C · #7 | 18 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -10 |
 T. Reed Jr. C · #10 | 3 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 |
 J. McLaughlin G · #0 | 8 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -9 |
| Team | 124 | 38-79 | 15-30 | 33-42 | 46 | 28 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 33 | 15 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-79 | 40-82 |
| FG% | 48 | 49 |
| 3PT | 15-30 | 16-35 |
| 3P% | 50 | 46 |
| FT | 33-42 | 13-19 |
| FT% | 79 | 68 |
| REB | 46 | 36 |
| OR | 13 | 7 |
| DR | 33 | 29 |
| AST | 28 | 33 |
| STL | 5 | 6 |
| BLK | 4 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 11 |
| TTO | 1 | 2 |
| ToTO | 12 | 13 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| TECH | 0 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 1 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 10 | 12 |
| FBPs | 14 | 16 |
| PIP | 42 | 44 |
| PF | 15 | 26 |
| LL | 24 | 3 |
| LC | 10 | 10 |
| LPCT | 89 | 7 |
At lock SA 122.23–107.70 SAC · SA by 14.5 pts vs SAC +15.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Sabonis · SAC
5 AST · under 5.5V. Wembanyama · SA
26 MIN · 30 PTSDarius Acuff Jr. · SAC
STAT · 33 MIN · 22 PTS · 9-20 FG · 3-9 3PTDevin Vassell · SA
STAT · 27 MIN · 19 PTS · 6-10 FG · 5-6 3PTStephon Castle · SA
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 7-13 FG · 1-3 3PTDylan Harper · SA
STAT · 28 MIN · 19 PTS · 5-10 FG · 1-2 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Sabonis Under 5.5 ast
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Spurs vs Kings pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is SAC +15.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day