Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
Final · Prime Video
118–124Last shot · Ziaire Williams misses heave jump shot
At lock: projected POR 117.00–118.00 LAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 824071163
- Winner: Lakers (58%)
- Spread: LAL -2.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Under 233.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)8
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Avdija points | — | 24 | 22 | off -2 |
| L. Doncic points | — | 35 | 53 | off 18 |
| T. Camara points | — | 14 | 18 | off 4 |
| A. Reaves points | — | 23 | 25 | off 2 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: POR vs LAL
The model
How this number was built
POR 117.00–118.00 LAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexLAL +5.0 vs POR +4.3 · pred margin +3.4
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +3.9 vs +3.5 · back-to-back: LAL, POR · model LAL 117.2–114.8 POR
- Home field+2.8 pts to LAL
- RecordLAL 8-2 · POR 6-2
- Market priorBlended 67% toward LAL -3.5 / total 231.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 29 | 31 | 15 | 43 | 118 |
| LAL | 20 | 33 | 34 | 37 | 124 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 50.8110–114Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2
SCORE4th Quarter 27.7110–116Luka Doncic makes 7-foot floating jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 23.6110–118
Austin Reaves makes driving dunk
- 3PT4th Quarter 17.8113–118
Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)
- FT4th Quarter 14.9113–119
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 14.9113–120
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 12.3116–120
Donovan Clingan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)
- FT4th Quarter 10.8116–121
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 10.8116–122
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 4.8118–122
Deni Avdija makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 2.9118–123
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2.9118–124
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| POR | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 T. Camara F · #33 | 30 | 18 | 7-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -4 |
 D. Avdija F · #8 | 39 | 22 | 6-12 | 1-4 | 9-14 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 0 |
 D. Clingan C · #23 | 28 | 17 | 6-8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 5 | -7 |
 D. Lillard G · #0 | 37 | 22 | 5-13 | 4-10 | 8-8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +5 |
 S. Henderson G · #00 | 23 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -2 |
 R. Williams III C · #35 | 16 | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 |
 Y. Hansen C · #16 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
 J. Holiday G · #5 | 31 | 12 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -12 |
 C. Youngblood G · #11 | 11 | 7 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +4 |
 S. Cissoko G · #91 | 22 | 7 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -13 |
 M. Potter C · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 B. Carlson C · #10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 J. Kent G · #29 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 118 | 36-70 | 19-43 | 27-37 | 37 | 29 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 31 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| POR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 36-70 | 42-93 |
| FG% | 51 | 45 |
| 3PT | 19-43 | 11-37 |
| 3P% | 44 | 30 |
| FT | 27-37 | 29-37 |
| FT% | 73 | 78 |
| REB | 37 | 40 |
| OR | 8 | 17 |
| DR | 29 | 23 |
| AST | 29 | 17 |
| STL | 7 | 15 |
| BLK | 5 | 1 |
| TO | 24 | 11 |
| TTO | 0 | 0 |
| ToTO | 24 | 11 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| TECH | 2 | 1 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 28 | 18 |
| FBPs | 18 | 9 |
| PIP | 32 | 52 |
| PF | 31 | 29 |
| LL | 16 | 16 |
| LC | 2 | 2 |
| LPCT | 56 | 35 |
Grok Expert vs the model
Two separate picks, each graded on its own record.
They agree: the model projects LAL by 1.00, which also covers POR +2.5.
Why Grok Expert likes POR +2.5: Portland is 6-1 and 5-0 on the road without Morant and Sharpe, already beat these Lakers 136-129 in LA on Oct 28, and the number has been bet down from +4.5 to +2.5 at near even money.
Why Grok Expert likes it: Luka has cleared 34.5 in all of his last 6 (40,42,45,37,41,52; 42.8 avg). Portland is missing Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe on the road at Crypto.
At lock POR 117.00–118.00 LAL · LAL by 1.0 pts vs POR +2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp D. Avdija · POR
22 PTS · under 25.5T. Camara · POR
30 MIN · 18 PTSJ. LaRavia · LAL
25 MIN · 7 PTSLuka Doncic · LAL
STAT · 38 MIN · 53 PTS · 17-33 FG · 5-15 3PTAustin Reaves · LAL
STAT · 38 MIN · 25 PTS · 8-22 FG · 1-8 3PTDamian Lillard · POR
STAT · 37 MIN · 22 PTS · 5-13 FG · 4-10 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · D. Avdija Under 25.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Trail Blazers vs Lakers pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is POR +2.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day