Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans
Final · GCSEN
115–109Last shot · Dejounte Murray misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
At lock: projected MIN 118.02–113.70 NO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 907959258
- Winner: Timberwolves (64%)
- Spread: NO +4.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 230.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)8
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bey points | — | 17 | 17 | off 0 |
| Z. Williamson points | — | 21 | 13 | off -8 |
| R. Gobert points | — | 10 | 8 | off -2 |
| J. McDaniels points | — | 15 | 23 | off 8 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MIN vs NO
The model
How this number was built
MIN 118.02–113.70 NO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexNO -7.3 vs MIN +5.5 · pred margin -4.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -5.9 vs +5.6 · back-to-back: NO, MIN · model NO 112.9–123.0 MIN
- Home field+2.8 pts to NO
- RecordNO 4-5 · MIN 7-3
- Market priorBlended 80% toward MIN -3.5 / total 230.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 27 | 30 | 20 | 38 | 115 |
| NO | 30 | 21 | 28 | 30 | 109 |
Scoring plays
SCORE4th Quarter 1:46107–99Ayo Dosunmu makes 22-foot running jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)
- FT4th Quarter 1:32108–101
Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:32109–101
Jaden McDaniels makes free throw 2 of 2
FT4th Quarter 1:28109–102Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:28109–103
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:06112–103
Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 1:02112–106
Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)
- FT4th Quarter 24.3113–106
Trey Lyles makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 22.8113–108
Jeremiah Fears makes 2-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)
- FT4th Quarter 22.8113–109
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 1
- SCORE4th Quarter 12.4113–111
Jeremiah Fears makes running layup
- SCORE4th Quarter 6.0115–111
Jonathan Kuminga makes 3-foot dunk (Trey Lyles assists)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| MIN | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. McDaniels F · #3 | 40 | 23 | 8-19 | 2-7 | 5-5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +5 |
 J. Kuminga F · #24 | 34 | 17 | 5-12 | 1-6 | 6-12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | +14 |
 R. Gobert C · #27 | 25 | 8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | +10 |
 A. Dosunmu G · #13 | 39 | 26 | 8-14 | 4-6 | 6-6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 |
 L. Ball G · #1 | 35 | 22 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 5-5 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +23 |
 T. Lyles F · #41 | 29 | 5 | 2-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 2 | +1 |
 J. Beringer F · #19 | 7 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -4 |
 J. Clark G · #7 | 21 | 8 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -7 |
 B. Hyland G · #8 | 10 | 4 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 |
 C. Williams F · #9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 I. Evans F · #33 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 R. Zikarsky C · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 Z. Pullin G · #15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 115 | 38-88 | 12-39 | 27-37 | 49 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 38-88 | 39-86 |
| FG% | 43 | 45 |
| 3PT | 12-39 | 10-24 |
| 3P% | 31 | 42 |
| FT | 27-37 | 21-26 |
| FT% | 73 | 81 |
| REB | 49 | 41 |
| OR | 17 | 12 |
| DR | 32 | 29 |
| AST | 23 | 25 |
| STL | 5 | 7 |
| BLK | 6 | 4 |
| TO | 11 | 13 |
| TTO | 3 | 0 |
| ToTO | 14 | 13 |
| TECH | 1 | 3 |
| TECH | 1 | 3 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 22 | 14 |
| FBPs | 10 | 30 |
| PIP | 50 | 54 |
| PF | 22 | 28 |
| LL | 11 | 7 |
| LC | 13 | 13 |
| LPCT | 59 | 34 |
At lock MIN 118.02–113.70 NO · 2.2 pts over 229.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp L. Ball · MIN
22 PTS · over 21.5J. McDaniels · MIN
40 MIN · 23 PTSZ. Williamson · NO
36 MIN · 13 PTSAyo Dosunmu · MIN
STAT · 39 MIN · 26 PTS · 8-14 FG · 4-6 3PTJeremiah Fears · NO
STAT · 36 MIN · 24 PTS · 9-16 FG · 0-1 3PTKarlo Matkovic · NO
STAT · 18 MIN · 18 PTS · 7-13 FG · 4-8 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · L. Ball Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Timberwolves vs Pelicans pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 229.5, with a 50% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day