Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Final · KFAA-TV
100–112Last shot · Isaiah Collier makes driving layup
At lock: projected UTAH 111.46–118.64 DAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 891181639
- Winner: Mavericks (73%)
- Spread: UTAH +7.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 226.5 (70%)
- Score error (both teams)19
| Player | Line | Sim median | Actual | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.J. Washington points | — | 14 | 26 | off 12 |
| L. Markkanen points | — | 24 | 24 | off 0 |
| C. Flagg points | — | 22 | 21 | off -1 |
| K. George points | — | 22 | 16 | off -6 |
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UTAH vs DAL
The model
How this number was built
UTAH 111.46–118.64 DAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexDAL -0.1 vs UTAH -7.5 · pred margin +7.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net -2.2 vs -7.3 · back-to-back: DAL, UTAH · model DAL 120.7–113.4 UTAH
- Home field+2.8 pts to DAL
- RecordDAL 5-4 · UTAH 1-8
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DAL -6.5 / total 226.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTAH | 28 | 29 | 19 | 24 | 100 |
| DAL | 26 | 31 | 32 | 23 | 112 |
Scoring plays
FT4th Quarter 6:1891–102Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2
JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:2191–105P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)
- JUMP SHOT4th Quarter 5:0594–105
Lauri Markkanen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:4294–107
Cooper Flagg makes 11-foot turnaround jump shot
- SCORE4th Quarter 4:0794–109
Naji Marshall makes running dunk (P.J. Washington assists)
- FT4th Quarter 2:3895–109
Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:3896–109
Keyonte George makes free throw 2 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 2:1596–110
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1:5698–110
Keyonte George makes driving layup
- FT4th Quarter 1:3698–111
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
- FT4th Quarter 1:3698–112
Walter Clayton Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
- SCORE4th Quarter 1.0100–112
Isaiah Collier makes driving layup
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
| UTAH | MIN | PTS | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | TO | STL | BLK | OREB | DREB | PF | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 L. Markkanen F · #23 | 34 | 24 | 8-20 | 8-15 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | -15 |
 J. Hayes C · #11 | 28 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 |
 K. George G · #3 | 32 | 16 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | -10 |
 A. Bailey G · #19 | 29 | 12 | 6-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -5 |
 D. Peterson G · #22 | 30 | 21 | 6-12 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -14 |
 K. Filipowski F · #2 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 |
 B. Sensabaugh F · #28 | 10 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 |
 T. Bradley C · #13 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 |
 S. Mykhailiuk G · #10 | 14 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 |
 J. Okogie G · #21 | 24 | 12 | 4-10 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 |
 J. Green G · #5 | 24 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -4 |
 I. Collier G · #8 | 13 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 |
 M. Bamba C · #44 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
 K. Bufkin G · #4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Team | 100 | 36-82 | 15-39 | 13-14 | 40 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 32 | 22 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTAH | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| FG | 36-82 | 39-93 |
| FG% | 44 | 42 |
| 3PT | 15-39 | 9-32 |
| 3P% | 38 | 28 |
| FT | 13-14 | 25-31 |
| FT% | 93 | 81 |
| REB | 40 | 55 |
| OR | 8 | 21 |
| DR | 32 | 34 |
| AST | 25 | 23 |
| STL | 7 | 11 |
| BLK | 7 | 8 |
| TO | 21 | 15 |
| TTO | 0 | 1 |
| ToTO | 21 | 16 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| TECH | 0 | 0 |
| FLAG | 0 | 0 |
| Points Conceded Off Turnovers | 18 | 12 |
| FBPs | 15 | 14 |
| PIP | 36 | 48 |
| PF | 22 | 19 |
| LL | 8 | 20 |
| LC | 9 | 9 |
| LPCT | 27 | 63 |
At lock UTAH 111.46–118.64 DAL · 3.6 pts over 226.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. George · UTAH
16 PTS · under 21.5L. Markkanen · UTAH
34 MIN · 24 PTSC. Martin · DAL
11 MIN · 0-1 FGP.J. Washington · DAL
STAT · 33 MIN · 26 PTS · 7-14 FG · 6-10 3PTDarryn Peterson · UTAH
STAT · 30 MIN · 21 PTS · 6-12 FG · 3-7 3PTCooper Flagg · DAL
STAT · 33 MIN · 21 PTS · 7-16 FG · 1-4 3PT
Data-Driven Pick · K. George Under 21.5 pts
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Jazz vs Mavericks pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 226.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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