Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
TV · NBC
OKC 114.53–116.85 SA
Projected OKC 114.53–116.85 SA
Model vs market
Gap: -0.6 margin, -0.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,692 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2078 vs old model 0.2120. No free archive of NBA closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Game totals also use a possession model (shot mix, shooting and pace from team box lines), which cut total-points error by 0.17 pts/game in every test season; it didn't improve win probability, so that stays on v2.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OKC vs SA
The model
How this number was built
OKC 114.53–116.85 SA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexSA +7.6 vs OKC +8.5 · pred margin +2.3
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. net +6.1 vs +5.9 · model SA 116.1–114.1 OKC
- Home field+2.8 pts to SA
- RecordSA 2-3 · OKC 1-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward SA -2.5 / total 231.5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OKC | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| STRK | - | - |
| OPP PPG | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Thunder vs Spurs prediction · Oct 20, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 231.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projects Thunder 114.5, Spurs 116.8. Model win probability: Spurs 58%, Thunder 42%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: NBA picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day