MLSWed 7:30 PM CTEnergizer Park

Portland Timbers at St. Louis CITY SC

TV · Apple TV

Wed 7:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

50%

At lock POR 1.41–2.27 STL · 0.2 goals over 3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

K. Velde · POR
Forward
S. Becher · STL
Forward

Portland Timbers

10-7-14

Form DDLDL · 54 PF · 58 PA

1.41

Projected

St. Louis CITY SC

14-9-8

Form DWLDW · 56 PF · 44 PA

2.27

POR 23%Draw 22%STL 56%

At lock: projected POR 1.41–2.27 STL · most likely 1–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

STL win

67%

68% (no-vig)

Total

3.67

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.17 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

POR 1.41–2.27 STL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STL att +0.01 / def -0.10 · POR att -0.12 / def -0.21 · model STL 2.3–1.4 POR
Home field
+0.3 goals to STL
Record
STL 14-9-8 · POR 10-7-14

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Kristoffer Velde
goals 8
Kristoffer Velde
goalsleaders 8

Simon Becher
goals 9
Simon Becher
goalsleaders 9

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	POR	STL
Goal Difference	-4	12
Total Goals	54	56
Assists	40	37
Goals Against	58	44

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

D. Downs anytime goal
Anytime goal · STL
+140
42%
V. Janssen anytime goal
Anytime goal · POR
+205
33%
J. Waterman anytime goal
Anytime goal · POR
+1900
6%
F. Surman anytime goal
Anytime goal · POR
+2800
6%

Portland vs St. Louis prediction · Oct 28, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Portland 1.4, St. Louis 2.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: St. Louis 56%, Portland 23%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day