FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC
TV · Apple TV
@Model projects CIN 1.94 – 2.50 ORL · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.9%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
K. Denkey · CIN
ForwardM. Ojeda · ORL
Midfielder
Projected prop · Martín Ojeda (ORL) 0.56 goals · 0.47 goals/game this season, × 1.20 for the projected ORL score
At lock: projected CIN 1.94–2.50 ORL · most likely 1–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 2–2
Model vs market
Gap: +10 pts of win %, +0.95 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CIN 1.94–2.50 ORL · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ORL att +0.07 / def -0.33 · CIN att -0.02 / def -0.26 · model ORL 2.5–1.9 CIN
- Home field+0.3 goals to ORL
- RecordORL 13-7-14 · CIN 12-10-12
Season leaders
- Kévin Denkeygoals 17
- Kévin Denkeygoalsleaders 17
Martín Ojedagoals 16- Martín Ojedagoalsleaders 16
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CIN | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -8 | -15 |
| Total Goals | 67 | 63 |
| Assists | 49 | 46 |
| Goals Against | 75 | 78 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cincinnati vs Orlando prediction · Nov 19, 2026
The model projects Cincinnati 1.9, Orlando 2.5. Model win probability: Orlando 50%, Cincinnati 31%, draw 19%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: MLS picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day