Paris Saint-Germain at Strasbourg
FT · beIn Sports
Model: PSG 2.38–1.11 STR
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1644136842
- Winner: Strasbourg (44%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (69%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PSG 2.38–1.11 STR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STR att +0.06 / def -0.12 · PSG att +0.37 / def +0.23 · model STR 1.3–2.1 PSG
- Home field+0.3 goals to STR
- RecordSTR 2-1-5 · PSG 5-2-1
- Market priorBlended 67% toward PSG -225 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| STR | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 17'
Goal! Strasbourg 1, Paris Saint Germain 0. Giovanni Reyna (Strasbourg) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Gessime Yassine.
- GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Strasbourg 1, Paris Saint Germain 1. Illia Zabarnyi (Paris Saint Germain) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ousmane Dembélé with a cross following a corner.
- GOAL2H 85'
Goal! Strasbourg 1, Paris Saint Germain 2. Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint Germain) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Strasbourg 1, Paris Saint Germain 3. Désiré Doué (Paris Saint Germain) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ferran Torres.
Game leaders
- Désiré Douétotalshots 4
- Illia ZabarnyiPass 98
- Illia Zabarnyidefensiveinterventions 6
- Matvei SafonovSV 7
- Conrad Hardertotalshots 3
- Giovanni ReynaPass 27
- Dário Essugodefensiveinterventions 10
- Filip JørgensenSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PSG | STR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 3 |
| Saves | 7 | 4 |
| Possession | 73 | 27 |
| SHOTS | 18 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 615 | 194 |
| Passes | 675 | 246 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 4 |
| Crosses | 12 | 7 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Long Balls | 53 | 44 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 37 | 17 |
| Long Balls % | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 6 |
| Tackles | 14 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 6 | 21 |
| Clearances | 6 | 21 |
PSG 2.38–1.11 STR
MissData-Driven Pick · F. Torres anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
PSG vs Strasbourg pick result · Oct 17, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 69% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day