Brest at Lorient
FT · beIn Sports
2–0
At lock: projected BRE 1.09–1.50 LOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3573857217
- Winner: Lorient (46%)
- Spread: BRE +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BRE 1.09–1.50 LOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LOR att -0.21 / def -0.02 · BRE att -0.05 / def -0.07 · model LOR 1.4–1.3 BRE
- Home field+0.3 goals to LOR
- RecordLOR 3-3-3 · BRE 3-3-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LOR +150 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| LOR | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Lorient 0, Brest 1. Ludovic Ajorque (Brest) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! Lorient 0, Brest 2. Noah Edjouma (Brest) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Giovani Versini.
Game leaders
- Ludovic Ajorquetotalshots 3
- Lucas TousartPass 78
- Lucas Tousartdefensiveinterventions 16
- Jean-Victor Makengototalshots 5
- Arthur AvomPass 64
- Nathaniel Adjeidefensiveinterventions 12
- Yvon MvogoSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BRE | LOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 16 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 8 |
| Saves | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 48.1 | 51.9 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 0 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 420 | 446 |
| Passes | 483 | 510 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 11 |
| Crosses | 20 | 32 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 58 | 43 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 36 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 11 |
| Tackles | 9 | 21 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 28 | 18 |
| Clearances | 28 | 18 |
At lock BRE 1.09–1.50 LOR · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 46% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp J. Makengo · LOR
J. Makengo Over 0.5 SOTL. Ajorque · BRE
ForwardL. Tousart · BRE
MidfielderA. Avom · LOR
MidfielderN. Adjei · LOR
DefenderY. Mvogo · LOR
Goalkeeper
Data-Driven Pick · J. Makengo Over 0.5 SOT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Brest vs Lorient pick result · Nov 2, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 46% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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