Angers at Lyon
FT · beIn Sports
0–2
At lock: projected ANG 0.93–2.38 LYON
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3557079598
- Winner: Lyon (69%)
- Spread: ANG +1.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ANG 0.93–2.38 LYON · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LYON att +0.05 / def +0.05 · ANG att -0.47 / def -0.23 · model LYON 2.1–0.8 ANG
- Home field+0.3 goals to LYON
- RecordLYON 5-2-2 · ANG 2-2-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LYON -235 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANG | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LYON | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 38'
Goal! Lyon 1, Angers 0. Ernest Nuamah (Lyon) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Corentin Tolisso.
- GOAL2H 86'
Goal! Lyon 2, Angers 0. Corentin Tolisso (Lyon) header from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Felix Bacher following a corner.
Game leaders
- Amine Sbaïtotalshots 2
- Jordan LefortPass 46
Carlens Arcusdefensiveinterventions 11- Anthony LopesSV 3
- Ernest Nuamahtotalshots 4
- Moussa NiakhatéPass 91
- Moussa Niakhatédefensiveinterventions 12
- Dominik GreifSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ANG | LYON | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 4 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 36.2 | 63.8 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 21 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 301 | 599 |
| Passes | 362 | 659 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 4 |
| Crosses | 15 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 55 | 24 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 28 | 12 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 8 |
| Tackles | 13 | 12 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 21 | 20 |
| Clearances | 21 | 20 |
At lock ANG 0.93–2.38 LYON · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp E. Nuamah · LYON
E. Nuamah Over 3.5 shotsA. Sbaï · ANG
ForwardJ. Lefort · ANG
DefenderC. Arcus · ANG
DefenderA. Lopes · ANG
GoalkeeperM. Niakhaté · LYON
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · E. Nuamah Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Angers vs Lyon pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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