Ligue 1FinalStade Vélodrome

Toulouse at Marseille

FT · beIn Sports

0–2

ToulouseMarseille

Final

Toulouse

2-4-3

Form WLDWD · 15 PF · 14 PA

Final

Marseille

5-0-4

Form WWWWL · 22 PF · 14 PA

TOU 28%Draw 22%OLM 50%

At lock: projected TOU 1.42–1.96 OLM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3473191503

Called it

Most typical sim

TOU 1 – OLM 2

Final

TOU 0 – OLM 2

Winner: Marseille (50%)
Spread: OLM -0.5 covers (50%)
Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TOU 1.42–1.96 OLM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): OLM att +0.19 / def -0.02 · TOU att -0.07 / def +0.03 · model OLM 1.9–1.2 TOU
Home field
+0.3 goals to OLM
Record
OLM 5-0-4 · TOU 2-4-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward OLM -110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
TOU	0	0	0
OLM	2	0	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Marseille 1, Toulouse 0. Amine Harit (Marseille) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Amine Gouiri.
GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Marseille 2, Toulouse 0. Amine Gouiri (Marseille) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Igor Paixão with a headed pass.

Game leaders

Cristian Cásseres Jr.
totalshots 4
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Pass 87
Mark McKenzie
defensiveinterventions 15
Guillaume Restes
SV 1

Timothy Weah
totalshots 3
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pass 54
CJ Egan-Riley
defensiveinterventions 17
Jeffrey de Lange
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TOU	OLM
Fouls	14	14
Yellow Cards	1	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	4	1
Corner Kicks	3	4
Saves	1	6
Possession	56.4	43.6
SHOTS	14	13
ON GOAL	7	3
On Target %	0.5	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	516	400
Passes	610	478
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	3
Crosses	20	8
Cross %	0.2	0.4
Long Balls	31	61
Accurate Long Balls	12	21
Long Balls %	0.4	0.3
Blocked Shots	3	4
Effective Tackles	11	12
Tackles	19	26
Tackle %	0.6	0.5
Interceptions	6	15
Effective Clearances	16	35
Clearances	16	35

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

59%

At lock TOU 1.42–1.96 OLM · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop G. Restes · TOU
G. Restes Over 3.5 saves
C. Cásseres Jr. · TOU
Midfielder
M. McKenzie · TOU
Defender
T. Weah · OLM
Forward
P. Højbjerg · OLM
Midfielder
C. Egan-Riley · OLM
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · G. Restes Over 3.5 saves

+110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Toulouse vs Marseille pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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