Ligue 1FinalStade Jean Bouin

AS Monaco at Paris FC

FT · beIn Sports

1–3

MonacoParis FC

Final

AS Monaco

4-3-2

Form DWLDW · 13 PF · 11 PA

Final

Paris FC

5-2-2

Form WWLWL · 17 PF · 10 PA

MON 29%Draw 26%PAR 45%

At lock: projected MON 1.14–1.49 PAR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3506746741

Called it

Most typical sim

MON 1 – PAR 1

Final

MON 1 – PAR 3

Winner: Paris FC (45%)
Spread: MON +0.5 covers (55%)
Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

MON 1.14–1.49 PAR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PAR att -0.04 / def +0.06 · MON att +0.09 / def -0.02 · model PAR 1.6–1.3 MON
Home field
+0.3 goals to PAR
Record
PAR 5-2-2 · MON 4-3-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward PAR +150 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
MON	0	1	1
PAR	2	1	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 38'
Goal! Paris FC 1, Monaco 0. Lassine Sinayoko (Paris FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Maxime Lopez.
GOAL1H 44'
Goal! Paris FC 2, Monaco 0. Lassine Sinayoko (Paris FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Moses Simon with a through ball.
GOAL2H 65'
Goal! Paris FC 2, Monaco 1. Folarin Balogun (Monaco) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Vanderson with a cross.
GOAL2H 74'
Goal! Paris FC 3, Monaco 1. Pablo Pagis (Paris FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Lassine Sinayoko.

Game leaders

Folarin Balogun
totalshots 4
Eric Dier
Pass 101
Sadibou Sané
defensiveinterventions 7
Lukas Hradecky
SV 7

Ilan Kebbal
totalshots 6
Maxime López
Pass 68
Diego Coppola
defensiveinterventions 10
Kevin Trapp
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MON	PAR
Fouls	15	13
Yellow Cards	2	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	1
Corner Kicks	2	3
Saves	7	2
Possession	55.6	44.4
SHOTS	9	19
ON GOAL	2	10
On Target %	0.2	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	577	442
Passes	653	512
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	7
Crosses	9	17
Cross %	0.2	0.4
Long Balls	41	47
Accurate Long Balls	23	22
Long Balls %	0.6	0.5
Blocked Shots	2	2
Effective Tackles	6	12
Tackles	8	16
Tackle %	0.8	0.8
Interceptions	11	22
Effective Clearances	13	19
Clearances	13	19

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

At lock MON 1.14–1.49 PAR · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop V. Marchetti · PAR
V. Marchetti Over 1.5 shots
F. Balogun · MON
Forward
E. Dier · MON
Defender
S. Sané · MON
Defender
L. Hradecky · MON
Goalkeeper
I. Kebbal · PAR
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · V. Marchetti Over 1.5 shots

-120Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Monaco vs Paris FC pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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