Ligue 1FinalStade de la Meinau

AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg

FT · beIn Sports

1–5

AuxerreStrasbourg

Final

AJ Auxerre

3-1-5

Form LLDWL · 13 PF · 24 PA

Final

Strasbourg

3-1-5

Form LWLLL · 18 PF · 22 PA

AUX 28%Draw 22%STR 50%

At lock: projected AUX 1.41–1.95 STR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3489969122

Called it

Most typical sim

AUX 1 – STR 2

Final

AUX 1 – STR 5

Winner: Strasbourg (50%)
Spread: STR -0.5 covers (50%)
Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

AUX 1.41–1.95 STR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STR att +0.07 / def -0.14 · AUX att -0.23 / def -0.15 · model STR 2.0–1.2 AUX
Home field
+0.3 goals to STR
Record
STR 3-1-5 · AUX 3-1-5
Market prior
Blended 66% toward STR -115 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
AUX	0	1	1
STR	1	4	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 41'
Goal! Strasbourg 1, Auxerre 0. Dário Essugo (Strasbourg) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Oso.
GOAL2H 55'
Goal! Strasbourg 2, Auxerre 0. Martial Godo (Strasbourg) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Gessime Yassine following a fast break.
GOAL2H 62'
Goal! Strasbourg 3, Auxerre 0. Conrad Harder (Strasbourg) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the top right corner.
GOAL2H 68'
Goal! Strasbourg 3, Auxerre 1. Cameron Archer (Auxerre) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Romain Faivre with a headed pass.
GOAL2H 77'
Goal! Strasbourg 4, Auxerre 1. Gessime Yassine (Strasbourg) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Sebastian Nanasi.
GOAL2H 85'
Goal! Strasbourg 5, Auxerre 1. Gessime Yassine (Strasbourg) header from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Oso with a cross.

Game leaders

Cameron Archer
totalshots 2
Clément Akpa
Pass 43
Axel Tuanzebe
defensiveinterventions 10
Paul Nardi
SV 1

Gessime Yassine
totalshots 4
Samir El Mourabet
Pass 71
Oso
defensiveinterventions 10
Filip Jørgensen
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	AUX	STR
Fouls	18	11
Yellow Cards	4	0
Red Cards	1	0
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	0	5
Saves	1	1
Possession	35.7	64.3
SHOTS	6	19
ON GOAL	2	6
On Target %	0.3	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	1
Accurate Passes	257	516
Passes	323	581
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	1	4
Crosses	7	14
Cross %	0.1	0.3
Long Balls	43	48
Accurate Long Balls	17	24
Long Balls %	0.4	0.5
Blocked Shots	1	6
Effective Tackles	9	16
Tackles	13	27
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	10	6
Effective Clearances	19	15
Clearances	19	15

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

60%

At lock AUX 1.41–1.95 STR · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop C. Harder · STR
C. Harder Over 4.5 shots
C. Archer · AUX
Forward
C. Akpa · AUX
Defender
A. Tuanzebe · AUX
Defender
P. Nardi · AUX
Goalkeeper
G. Yassine · STR
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · C. Harder Over 4.5 shots

+135Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Auxerre vs Strasbourg pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 60% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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