Ligue 1FinalStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Paris FC at AJ Auxerre

FT · beIn Sports

1–0

Paris FCAuxerre

Final

Paris FC

6-2-2

Form WWLWL · 17 PF · 10 PA

Final

AJ Auxerre

3-1-6

Form LLDWL · 13 PF · 24 PA

PAR 47%Draw 25%AUX 28%

At lock: projected PAR 1.56–1.15 AUX

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3439636265

Called it

Most typical sim

PAR 2 – AUX 1

Final

PAR 1 – AUX 0

Winner: Paris FC (47%)
Spread: AUX +0.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

PAR 1.56–1.15 AUX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AUX att -0.23 / def -0.15 · PAR att -0.04 / def +0.06 · model AUX 1.2–1.5 PAR
Home field
+0.3 goals to AUX
Record
AUX 3-1-6 · PAR 6-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward PAR -170 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
PAR	0	1	1
AUX	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL2H 63'
Goal! Auxerre 0, Paris FC 1. Lassine Sinayoko (Paris FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Pablo Pagis.

Game leaders

Pablo Pagis
totalshots 2
Maxime López
Pass 106
Hamari Traoré
defensiveinterventions 10
Kevin Trapp
SV 2

Cameron Archer
totalshots 2
Axel Tuanzebe
Pass 51
Axel Tuanzebe
defensiveinterventions 12
Paul Nardi
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PAR	AUX
Fouls	14	24
Yellow Cards	1	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	1
Corner Kicks	5	1
Saves	2	2
Possession	64.8	35.2
SHOTS	10	7
ON GOAL	3	2
On Target %	0.3	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	656	325
Passes	724	393
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.8
Accurate Crosses	3	4
Crosses	18	9
Cross %	0.2	0.4
Long Balls	37	54
Accurate Long Balls	17	22
Long Balls %	0.5	0.4
Blocked Shots	4	4
Effective Tackles	6	7
Tackles	13	11
Tackle %	0.5	0.6
Interceptions	10	9
Effective Clearances	12	17
Clearances	12	17

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

54%

At lock PAR 1.56–1.15 AUX · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop P. Pagis · PAR
P. Pagis Over 2.5 shots
M. López · PAR
Midfielder
H. Traoré · PAR
Defender
K. Trapp · PAR
Goalkeeper
C. Archer · AUX
Forward
A. Tuanzebe · AUX
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · P. Pagis Over 2.5 shots

-120Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Paris FC vs Auxerre pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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