Lyon at Brest
FT · beIn Sports
0–2
At lock: projected LYON 1.36–1.14 BRE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3422858646
- Winner: Lyon (42%)
- Spread: BRE +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LYON 1.36–1.14 BRE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BRE att -0.05 / def -0.07 · LYON att +0.05 / def +0.05 · model BRE 1.4–1.5 LYON
- Home field+0.3 goals to BRE
- RecordBRE 4-3-3 · LYON 5-2-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LYON +155 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LYON | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BRE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 22'
Goal! Brest 1, Lyon 0. Noah Edjouma (Brest) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Kamory Doumbia.
- GOAL2H 90'+4'
Goal! Brest 2, Lyon 0. Ludovic Ajorque (Brest) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the high centre of the goal.
Game leaders
- Corentin Tolissototalshots 3
- Moussa NiakhatéPass 84
- Tanner Tessmanndefensiveinterventions 9
- Dominik GreifSV 4
- Ludovic Ajorquetotalshots 5
- Lucas TousartPass 31
- Joris Chotarddefensiveinterventions 16
- Egil SelvikSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LYON | BRE | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 1 |
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Possession | 68.9 | 31.1 |
| SHOTS | 10 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 589 | 250 |
| Passes | 664 | 313 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 5 | 0 |
| Crosses | 36 | 4 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 42 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 13 |
| Tackles | 21 | 22 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 14 | 36 |
| Clearances | 14 | 36 |
At lock LYON 1.36–1.14 BRE · 0.00 goals under 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp E. Nuamah · LYON
E. Nuamah Over 2.5 shotsC. Tolisso · LYON
MidfielderM. Niakhaté · LYON
DefenderT. Tessmann · LYON
MidfielderD. Greif · LYON
GoalkeeperL. Ajorque · BRE
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · E. Nuamah Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lyon vs Brest pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day