Lorient at Le Havre AC
FT · beIn Sports
2–0
At lock: projected LOR 1.30–1.06 HAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3641114788
- Winner: Lorient (42%)
- Spread: HAC +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LOR 1.30–1.06 HAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HAC att -0.30 / def -0.16 · LOR att -0.21 / def -0.02 · model HAC 1.2–1.3 LOR
- Home field+0.3 goals to HAC
- RecordHAC 0-2-8 · LOR 4-3-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward LOR +140 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| HAC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 18'
Goal! Le Havre 0, Lorient 1. Isaak Touré (Lorient) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Arsène Kouassi.
- GOAL2H 90'+5'
Goal! Le Havre 0, Lorient 2. Jean-Victor Makengo (Lorient) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Mamadou Koné following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Jean-Victor Makengototalshots 2
- Isaak TouréPass 49
- Arsène Kouassidefensiveinterventions 15
- Yvon MvogoSV 5
- Josh Majatotalshots 4
- Vincent SassoPass 80
- Vincent Sassodefensiveinterventions 8
- Arnaud BodartSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LOR | HAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 19 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 0 | 5 |
| Saves | 5 | 1 |
| Possession | 46.1 | 53.9 |
| SHOTS | 7 | 21 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 352 | 431 |
| Passes | 438 | 498 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 8 |
| Crosses | 7 | 27 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 60 | 48 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 20 | 23 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 9 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 11 |
| Tackles | 14 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 25 | 10 |
| Clearances | 25 | 10 |
At lock LOR 1.30–1.06 HAC · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp I. Jensen · LOR
I. Jensen Over 0.5 SOTJ. Makengo · LOR
MidfielderI. Touré · LOR
DefenderA. Kouassi · LOR
DefenderY. Mvogo · LOR
GoalkeeperJ. Maja · HAC
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · I. Jensen Over 0.5 SOT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lorient vs Le Havre AC pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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