Ligue 1FinalStade Marie-Marvingt

AS Monaco at Le Mans

FT · beIn Sports

1–1

MonacoLe Mans

Final

AS Monaco

4-4-2

Form DWLDW · 13 PF · 11 PA

Final

Le Mans

1-5-4

Form DLDLL · 12 PF · 19 PA

MON 48%Draw 25%MNS 28%

At lock: projected MON 1.60–1.16 MNS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3657892407

Exact score

Most typical sim

MON 1 – MNS 1

Final

MON 1 – MNS 1

Winner: Monaco (42%)
Spread: MNS +0.5 covers (58%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)0

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

MON 1.60–1.16 MNS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MNS att -0.16 / def -0.16 · MON att +0.09 / def -0.02 · model MNS 1.4–1.7 MON
Home field
+0.3 goals to MNS
Record
MNS 1-5-4 · MON 4-4-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward MON -160 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
MON	1	0	1
MNS	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Le Mans 0, Monaco 1. Mamadou Coulibaly (Monaco) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
GOAL2H 90'
Goal! Le Mans 1, Monaco 1. Erwan Colas (Le Mans) right footed shot from very close range to the high centre of the goal following a corner.

Game leaders

Vanderson
totalshots 2
Eric Dier
Pass 61
Názinho
defensiveinterventions 15
Lukas Hradecky
SV 4

Lucas Buades
totalshots 5
Rayan Bamba
Pass 56
Samuel Yohou
defensiveinterventions 20
Nicolas Kocik
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MON	MNS
Fouls	8	16
Yellow Cards	0	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	3	2
Corner Kicks	7	8
Saves	4	2
Possession	51.8	48.2
SHOTS	5	19
ON GOAL	3	5
On Target %	0.6	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	383	342
Passes	459	419
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	2	9
Crosses	22	31
Cross %	0.1	0.3
Long Balls	53	51
Accurate Long Balls	28	31
Long Balls %	0.5	0.6
Blocked Shots	0	5
Effective Tackles	5	11
Tackles	8	18
Tackle %	0.6	0.6
Interceptions	12	15
Effective Clearances	28	21
Clearances	28	21

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

At lock MON 1.60–1.16 MNS · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop P. Brunner · MON
P. Brunner Over 3.5 shots
Vanderson · MON
Defender
E. Dier · MON
Defender
Názinho · MON
Defender
L. Hradecky · MON
Goalkeeper
L. Buades · MNS
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · P. Brunner Over 3.5 shots

-115Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Monaco vs Le Mans pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day