Ligue 1FinalParc des Princes

Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain

FT · beIn Sports

0–1

TroyesPSG

Final

Troyes

2-2-6

Form DWDLL · 7 PF · 17 PA

Final

Paris Saint-Germain

7-2-1

Form DWWWW · 22 PF · 10 PA

TRY 6%Draw 10%PSG 84%

At lock: projected TRY 0.62–3.19 PSG

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3473338598

Called it

Most typical sim

TRY 1 – PSG 3

Final

TRY 0 – PSG 1

Winner: PSG (87%)
Spread: TRY +2.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 3.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TRY 0.62–3.19 PSG · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PSG att +0.38 / def +0.25 · TRY att -0.34 / def -0.30 · model PSG 3.1–0.7 TRY
Home field
+0.3 goals to PSG
Record
PSG 7-2-1 · TRY 2-2-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward PSG -900 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
TRY	0	0	0
PSG	1	0	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 39'
Goal! Paris Saint Germain 1, Troyes 0. Illia Zabarnyi (Paris Saint Germain) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Senny Mayulu with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Renaud Ripart
totalshots 4
Adrien Monfray
Pass 41
Dermane Karim
defensiveinterventions 14
Hillel Konaté
SV 6

Ferran Torres
totalshots 4
Vitinha
Pass 166
Warren Zaïre-Emery
defensiveinterventions 8
Matvei Safonov
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TRY	PSG
Fouls	7	6
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	6	1
Corner Kicks	1	6
Saves	6	3
Possession	27	73
SHOTS	8	15
ON GOAL	3	7
On Target %	0.4	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	272	835
Passes	327	893
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	3
Crosses	8	16
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	52	56
Accurate Long Balls	28	38
Long Balls %	0.5	0.7
Blocked Shots	2	3
Effective Tackles	9	8
Tackles	14	14
Tackle %	0.6	0.6
Interceptions	13	9
Effective Clearances	21	10
Clearances	21	10

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

53%

At lock TRY 0.62–3.19 PSG · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop F. Torres · PSG
F. Torres Over 4.5 shots
R. Ripart · TRY
Forward
A. Monfray · TRY
Defender
D. Karim · TRY
Midfielder
H. Konaté · TRY
Goalkeeper
Vitinha · PSG
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · F. Torres Over 4.5 shots

+100Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Troyes vs PSG pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day