Ligue 1FinalStadium Municipal de Toulouse

Strasbourg at Toulouse

FT · beIn Sports

1–3

StrasbourgToulouse

Final

Strasbourg

3-1-6

Form LWLLL · 18 PF · 22 PA

Final

Toulouse

3-4-3

Form WLDWD · 15 PF · 14 PA

STR 31%Draw 24%TOU 45%

At lock: projected STR 1.34–1.66 TOU

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:33 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3439783360

Called it

Most typical sim

STR 1 – TOU 2

Final

STR 1 – TOU 3

Winner: Toulouse (46%)
Spread: STR +0.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 2.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

STR 1.34–1.66 TOU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOU att -0.07 / def +0.03 · STR att +0.07 / def -0.14 · model TOU 1.7–1.4 STR
Home field
+0.3 goals to TOU
Record
TOU 3-4-3 · STR 3-1-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TOU +120 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
STR	0	1	1
TOU	1	2	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 45'+1'
Goal! Toulouse 1, Strasbourg 0. Santiago Hidalgo (Toulouse) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Sion Oppong.Goal awarded following VAR Review.
GOAL2H 56'
Goal! Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 0. Mark McKenzie (Toulouse) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Cristian Cásseres with a cross following a corner.
GOAL2H 67'
Goal! Toulouse 2, Strasbourg 1. Giovanni Reyna (Strasbourg) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner.
GOAL2H 76'
Goal! Toulouse 3, Strasbourg 1. Thomas Jørgensen (Toulouse) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Rasmus Nicolaisen following a corner.

Game leaders

Giovanni Reyna
totalshots 2
Ismael Doukoure
Pass 75
Lucas Høgsberg
defensiveinterventions 7
Filip Jørgensen
SV 2

Casper Tengstedt
totalshots 4
Mark McKenzie
Pass 72
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
defensiveinterventions 9
Guillaume Restes
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	STR	TOU
Fouls	15	16
Yellow Cards	3	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	1
Corner Kicks	1	7
Saves	2	3
Possession	52.7	47.3
SHOTS	9	10
ON GOAL	4	5
On Target %	0.4	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	441	389
Passes	496	443
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	3
Crosses	14	11
Cross %	0.1	0.3
Long Balls	40	40
Accurate Long Balls	17	17
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	1	1
Effective Tackles	13	12
Tackles	15	16
Tackle %	0.9	0.8
Interceptions	6	10
Effective Clearances	9	15
Clearances	9	15

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

60%

At lock STR 1.34–1.66 TOU · 0.5 goals over 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop S. Hidalgo · TOU
S. Hidalgo Over 3.5 shots
G. Reyna · STR
Midfielder
I. Doukoure · STR
Defender
L. Høgsberg · STR
Defender
F. Jørgensen · STR
Goalkeeper
C. Tengstedt · TOU
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · S. Hidalgo Over 3.5 shots

+100Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Strasbourg vs Toulouse pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Ligue 1 picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day