Marseille at Lens
FT · beIn Sports
2–1
At lock: projected OLM 1.36–1.80 RCL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3456560979
- Winner: Lens (48%)
- Spread: OLM +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (61%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OLM 1.36–1.80 RCL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RCL att +0.13 / def +0.11 · OLM att +0.19 / def -0.02 · model RCL 1.8–1.4 OLM
- Home field+0.3 goals to RCL
- RecordRCL 4-1-5 · OLM 6-0-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward RCL +125 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OLM | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| RCL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 2'
Goal! Lens 0, Marseille 1. Amine Gouiri (Marseille) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal.
- GOAL1H 20'
Goal! Lens 1, Marseille 1. Florian Thauvin (Lens) header from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Florian Sotoca with a cross.
- GOAL2H 82'
Goal! Lens 1, Marseille 2. Keyliane Abdallah (Marseille) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
Igor Paixãototalshots 4- Nayef AguerdPass 80
- Nayef Aguerddefensiveinterventions 12
Jeffrey de LangeSV 5
- Florian Thauvintotalshots 4
- Jean-Clair TodiboPass 43
- Samson Baidoodefensiveinterventions 8
- Robin RisserSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OLM | RCL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 4 |
| Saves | 5 | 2 |
| Possession | 58.7 | 41.3 |
| SHOTS | 16 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 553 | 350 |
| Passes | 644 | 446 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 4 |
| Crosses | 14 | 17 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 50 | 60 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 23 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 5 |
| Tackles | 15 | 10 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 24 |
| Clearances | 18 | 24 |
At lock OLM 1.36–1.80 RCL · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. de Lange · OLM
J. de Lange Over 3.5 savesIgor Paixão · OLM
ForwardN. Aguerd · OLM
DefenderF. Thauvin · RCL
ForwardJ. Todibo · RCL
DefenderS. Baidoo · RCL
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · J. de Lange Over 3.5 saves
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Marseille vs Lens pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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