Monterrey at Querétaro
FT
1–0
At lock: projected MTY 1.49–1.31 QRO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 13, 5:11 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1209317664
- Winner: Monterrey (42%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MTY 1.49–1.31 QRO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): QRO att -0.39 / def -0.13 · MTY att +0.01 / def -0.16 · model QRO 1.3–1.5 MTY
- Home field+0.3 goals to QRO
- RecordQRO 6-2-9 · MTY 8-3-6
- Market priorBlended 64% toward MTY +105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTY | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| QRO | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 48'
Goal! Querétaro 0, Monterrey 1. Diego Rossi (Monterrey) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal.
Game leaders
- Lucas Ocampostotalshots 4
- Víctor GuzmánPass 84
- Víctor Guzmándefensiveinterventions 12
- Esteban AndradaSV 2
- Mateo Coroneltotalshots 3
- Lucas AbasciaPass 20
- Lucas Abasciadefensiveinterventions 13
- Guillermo AllisonSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTY | QRO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 19 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 4 |
| Saves | 2 | 4 |
| Possession | 72.5 | 27.5 |
| SHOTS | 16 | 12 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 565 | 151 |
| Passes | 638 | 228 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 5 |
| Crosses | 18 | 16 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 61 | 54 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 36 | 16 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 10 |
| Tackles | 7 | 15 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 2 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 22 |
| Clearances | 24 | 22 |
Model projected MTY 1.49 – 1.31 QRO at lock · below the strong-play bar (edge -6.5%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet
L. Ocampos · MTY
MidfielderV. Guzmán · MTY
DefenderE. Andrada · MTY
GoalkeeperM. Coronel · QRO
ForwardL. Abascia · QRO
DefenderG. Allison · QRO
Goalkeeper
Prop lean · I. Benito Over 0.5 SOT · 51% · informational
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Monterrey vs Queretaro pick result · Nov 14, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Liga MX picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day