Liga MXFinalEstadio Jalisco

Pachuca at Atlas

4–1

PachucaAtlas

Final

Pachuca

6-4-6

Form WWWLL · 29 PF · 20 PA

Final

Atlas

8-3-5

Form LWWLW · 27 PF · 30 PA

PAC 32%Draw 25%ATS 43%

At lock: projected PAC 1.24–1.49 ATS

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1191260117

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

PAC 1 – ATS 1

Final

PAC 4 – ATS 1

Winner: Atlas (43%)
Spread: PAC +0.5 covers (57%)
Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

PAC 1.24–1.49 ATS · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATS att -0.18 / def -0.25 · PAC att -0.02 / def +0.09 · model ATS 1.3–1.6 PAC
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATS
Record
ATS 8-3-5 · PAC 6-4-6
Market prior
Blended 78% toward ATS +155 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
PAC	2	2	4
ATS	0	1	1

How the goals went in

OWN GOAL1H 5'
Own Goal by Manuel Capasso, Atlas. Atlas 0, Pachuca 1.
GOAL1H 12'
Goal! Atlas 0, Pachuca 2. Oussama Idrissi (Pachuca) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Salomón Rondón.
GOAL2H 51'
Goal! Atlas 1, Pachuca 2. Manuel Capasso (Atlas) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner following a corner.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
GOAL2H 75'
Goal! Atlas 1, Pachuca 3. Salomón Rondón (Pachuca) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! Atlas 1, Pachuca 4. Eduardo Bauermann (Pachuca) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the top right corner. Assisted by Kenedy with a cross following a corner.

Game leaders

Eduardo Bauermann
totalshots 2
Sergio Barreto
Pass 19
Eduardo Bauermann
defensiveinterventions 13
Carlos Moreno
SV 5

Kevin Zenón
totalshots 4
Manuel Capasso
Pass 81
Juanjo Purata
defensiveinterventions 12
Camilo Vargas
SV 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PAC	ATS
Fouls	15	12
Yellow Cards	1	3
Red Cards	0	1
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	5	7
Saves	5	5
Possession	34.2	65.8
SHOTS	15	11
ON GOAL	8	6
On Target %	0.5	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	1	0
Accurate Passes	172	383
Passes	236	455
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	5	7
Crosses	12	22
Cross %	0.4	0.3
Long Balls	51	37
Accurate Long Balls	23	17
Long Balls %	0.5	0.5
Blocked Shots	4	1
Effective Tackles	14	14
Tackles	22	17
Tackle %	0.6	0.8
Interceptions	10	8
Effective Clearances	16	12
Clearances	16	12

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

At lock PAC 1.24–1.49 ATS · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop C. Vargas · ATS
C. Vargas Over 3.5 saves
E. Bauermann · PAC
Defender
S. Barreto · PAC
Defender
C. Moreno · PAC
Goalkeeper
K. Zenón · ATS
Midfielder
M. Capasso · ATS
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · C. Vargas Over 3.5 saves

+165Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Pachuca vs Atlas pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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