Puebla at Querétaro
FT
2–0
At lock: projected PUE 1.09–1.58 QRO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 12:08 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1124149641
- Winner: Queretaro (47%)
- Spread: PUE +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PUE 1.09–1.58 QRO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): QRO att -0.39 / def -0.13 · PUE att -0.41 / def -0.25 · model QRO 1.4–1.0 PUE
- Home field+0.3 goals to QRO
- RecordQRO 6-2-7 · PUE 5-4-7
- Market priorBlended 64% toward QRO -130 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PUE | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| QRO | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 9'
Goal! Querétaro 0, Puebla 1. Kevin Velasco (Puebla) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Omar Moreno with a cross.
- GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Querétaro 0, Puebla 2. Omar Moreno (Puebla) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Kevin Velasco.
Game leaders
- Luifer Hernándeztotalshots 3
- Mathías TomásPass 43
- Juan Pablo Vargasdefensiveinterventions 16
- Ricardo GutiérrezSV 5
- Mateo Coroneltotalshots 5
- Lucas AbasciaPass 61
- Lucas Abasciadefensiveinterventions 13
- Guillermo AllisonSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PUE | QRO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks | 0 | 9 |
| Saves | 5 | 1 |
| Possession | 43.5 | 56.5 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 21 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 312 | 377 |
| Passes | 376 | 454 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 11 |
| Crosses | 4 | 47 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 72 | 59 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 34 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 11 |
| Tackles | 6 | 15 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 7 |
| Effective Clearances | 49 | 8 |
| Clearances | 49 | 8 |
At lock PUE 1.09–1.58 QRO · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp I. Benito · QRO
I. Benito Over 2.5 shotsL. Hernández · PUE
ForwardM. Tomás · PUE
MidfielderJ. Vargas · PUE
DefenderR. Gutiérrez · PUE
GoalkeeperM. Coronel · QRO
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · I. Benito Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Puebla vs Queretaro pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Liga MX picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day