Guadalajara at León
FT
1–1
At lock: projected GDL 1.47–1.26 LEO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 8, 12:08 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1107372022
- Winner: Guadalajara (42%)
- Spread: LEO +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GDL 1.47–1.26 LEO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LEO att -0.21 / def -0.17 · GDL att +0.01 / def +0.17 · model LEO 1.1–1.5 GDL
- Home field+0.3 goals to LEO
- RecordLEO 6-5-5 · GDL 8-6-2
- Market priorBlended 64% toward GDL -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LEO | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! León 0, Guadalajara 1. Ricardo Marín (Guadalajara) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Daniel Aguirre.
- GOAL2H 87'
Goal! León 1, Guadalajara 1. Paúl Bellón (León) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Jhohan Romaña following a corner.
Game leaders
- Santiago Sandovaltotalshots 5
- Fernando GonzalezPass 79
- Diego Campillodefensiveinterventions 12
- Raúl RangelSV 4
- Daniel Arcilatotalshots 2
- Juan GuevaraPass 39
Jhohan Romañadefensiveinterventions 20- Oscar GarcíaSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GDL | LEO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 2 |
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Possession | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| SHOTS | 18 | 8 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 602 | 262 |
| Passes | 675 | 338 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 5 | 2 |
| Crosses | 25 | 9 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 41 | 56 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 24 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 9 |
| Tackles | 12 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 11 | 28 |
| Clearances | 11 | 28 |
At lock GDL 1.47–1.26 LEO · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp R. Alvarado · GDL
R. Alvarado Over 2.5 shotsS. Sandoval · GDL
MidfielderF. Gonzalez · GDL
MidfielderD. Campillo · GDL
DefenderR. Rangel · GDL
GoalkeeperD. Arcila · LEO
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · R. Alvarado Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Guadalajara vs León pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Liga MX picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day