Real Sociedad at Athletic Club
FT · ESPN Deportes
1–2
At lock: projected RSO 1.07–1.59 ATH
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3722241346
- Winner: Athletic (50%)
- Spread: RSO +0.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RSO 1.07–1.59 ATH · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATH att -0.12 / def +0.05 · RSO att +0.00 / def -0.17 · model ATH 1.7–1.2 RSO
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATH
- RecordATH 4-3-3 · RSO 6-1-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ATH -105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSO | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| ATH | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 14'
Goal! Athletic Club 1, Real Sociedad 0. Iñaki Williams (Athletic Club) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Nico Williams with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 30'
Goal! Athletic Club 1, Real Sociedad 1. Luka Sucic (Real Sociedad) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL1H 45'+2'
Goal! Athletic Club 2, Real Sociedad 1. Alex Berenguer (Athletic Club) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the centre of the goal.
Game leaders
- Carlos Solertotalshots 4
- Carlos SolerPass 82
- Mamadou Sarrdefensiveinterventions 15
- Álex RemiroSV 1
- Álex Berenguertotalshots 5
- Aymeric LaportePass 44
- Dani Viviandefensiveinterventions 13
- Unai SimónSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RSO | ATH | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 5 |
| Saves | 1 | 4 |
| Possession | 62 | 38 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 514 | 307 |
| Passes | 597 | 366 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 7 | 0 |
| Crosses | 24 | 13 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 34 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 3 |
| Tackles | 19 | 7 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 17 | 20 |
| Clearances | 17 | 20 |
At lock RSO 1.07–1.59 ATH · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp I. Williams · ATH
I. Williams Over 3.5 shotsC. Soler · RSO
MidfielderM. Sarr · RSO
DefenderÁ. Remiro · RSO
GoalkeeperÁ. Berenguer · ATH
ForwardA. Laporte · ATH
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · I. Williams Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Real Sociedad vs Athletic pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 57% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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