La LigaFinalRiazor

Osasuna at Deportivo

FT · ESPN Deportes

1–2

OsasunaDeportivo

Final

Osasuna

3-2-6

Form DLWLW · 12 PF · 23 PA

Final

Deportivo

3-5-3

Form DWWLD · 15 PF · 14 PA

OSA 25%Draw 25%DEP 50%

At lock: projected OSA 1.03–1.57 DEP

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 1, 11:01 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3688686108

Exact score

Most typical sim

OSA 1 – DEP 2

Final

OSA 1 – DEP 2

Winner: Deportivo (50%)
Spread: OSA +0.5 covers (50%)
Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
Score error (both teams)0

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

OSA 1.03–1.57 DEP · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DEP att -0.14 / def -0.06 · OSA att -0.22 / def -0.16 · model DEP 1.6–1.0 OSA
Home field
+0.3 goals to DEP
Record
DEP 3-5-3 · OSA 3-2-6
Market prior
Blended 66% toward DEP +110 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
OSA	1	0	1
DEP	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 32'
Goal! Deportivo de A Coruña 0, Osasuna 1. Ante Budimir (Osasuna) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Moi Gómez.
GOAL2H 64'
Goal! Deportivo de A Coruña 1, Osasuna 1. Mario Soriano (Deportivo de A Coruña) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 87'
Goal! Deportivo de A Coruña 2, Osasuna 1. Bil Nsongo (Deportivo de A Coruña) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner.

Game leaders

Ante Budimir
totalshots 4
Moi Gómez
Pass 49
Alejandro Catena
defensiveinterventions 15
Sergio Herrera
SV 5

Bil Nsongo
totalshots 4
Mario Soriano Carreno
Pass 92
Miguel Loureiro
defensiveinterventions 14
Leo Román
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	OSA	DEP
Fouls	13	5
Yellow Cards	4	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	0
Corner Kicks	2	8
Saves	5	2
Possession	38.1	61.9
SHOTS	11	18
ON GOAL	2	7
On Target %	0.2	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	277	496
Passes	343	557
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	4	8
Crosses	14	31
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	38	54
Accurate Long Balls	19	29
Long Balls %	0.5	0.5
Blocked Shots	4	3
Effective Tackles	17	9
Tackles	24	15
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	7	9
Effective Clearances	28	22
Clearances	28	22

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

45%

At lock OSA 1.03–1.57 DEP · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 45% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop P. Aubameyang · DEP
P. Aubameyang Over 3.5 shots
A. Budimir · OSA
Forward
Moi Gómez · OSA
Forward
A. Catena · OSA
Defender
S. Herrera · OSA
Goalkeeper
B. Nsongo · DEP
Forward

Data-Driven Pick · P. Aubameyang Over 3.5 shots

+110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Osasuna vs Deportivo pick result · Nov 2, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 45% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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