Valencia at Elche
FT · ESPN Deportes
1–0
Model: VAL 1.05–1.51 ELC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3671908489
- Winner: Elche (48%)
- Spread: VAL +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
VAL 1.05–1.51 ELC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ELC att -0.19 / def -0.15 · VAL att -0.31 / def -0.08 · model ELC 1.4–1.0 VAL
- Home field+0.3 goals to ELC
- RecordELC 2-4-5 · VAL 2-3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ELC +120 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ELC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Elche 0, Valencia 1. Umar Sadiq (Valencia) left footed shot from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Arnaut Danjuma following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Umar Sadiqtotalshots 3
- Guido RodríguezPass 38
- César Tárregadefensiveinterventions 15
- Stole DimitrievskiSV 3
- Fer Niñototalshots 4
- Víctor ChustPass 120
- Federico Redondodefensiveinterventions 9
- Matías DituroSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VAL | ELC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 6 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 6 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 30.9 | 69.1 |
| SHOTS | 5 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 222 | 558 |
| Passes | 280 | 618 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 9 |
| Crosses | 8 | 26 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 46 | 42 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 31 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 11 |
| Tackles | 15 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 7 |
| Effective Clearances | 28 | 7 |
| Clearances | 28 | 7 |
Model projects VAL 1.05 – 1.51 ELC · no lean was locked before the game
Prop T. Lemar · ELC
T. Lemar Over 2.5 shotsU. Sadiq · VAL
ForwardG. Rodríguez · VAL
MidfielderC. Tárrega · VAL
DefenderS. Dimitrievski · VAL
GoalkeeperF. Niño · ELC
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · T. Lemar Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Valencia vs Elche pick result · Nov 1, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day