La LigaFinalEstadio Coliseum

Sevilla at Getafe

FT · ESPN Deportes

1–3

SevillaGetafe

Final

Sevilla

5-2-4

Form DLWWL · 17 PF · 19 PA

Final

Getafe

3-3-5

Form LLWWL · 8 PF · 18 PA

SEV 41%Draw 33%GET 25%

At lock: projected SEV 1.00–0.71 GET

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3638353251

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

SEV 1 – GET 1

Final

SEV 1 – GET 3

Winner: Sevilla (41%)
Spread: GET +0.5 covers (59%)
Total: Over 1.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SEV 1.00–0.71 GET · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GET att -0.49 / def +0.07 · SEV att -0.16 / def -0.11 · model GET 1.1–1.0 SEV
Home field
+0.3 goals to GET
Record
GET 3-3-5 · SEV 5-2-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward SEV +130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SEV	1	0	1
GET	0	3	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 19'
Goal! Getafe 0, Sevilla 1. Kike Salas (Sevilla) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Félix Correia with a cross following a corner.
GOAL2H 68'
Goal! Getafe 1, Sevilla 1. Enes Ünal (Getafe) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Martín Satriano with a cross.
GOAL2H 73'
Goal! Getafe 2, Sevilla 1. Martín Satriano (Getafe) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Enes Ünal with a cross.Goal awarded following VAR Review.
GOAL2H 90'+4'
Goal! Getafe 3, Sevilla 1. Orel Mangala (Getafe) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Andrés García.

Game leaders

Enrique Salas
totalshots 3
Gabriel Suazo
Pass 34
Enrique Salas
defensiveinterventions 24
Odisseas Vlachodimos
SV 2

Martín Satriano
totalshots 3
Djené
Pass 28
Sebastián Boselli
defensiveinterventions 17
David Soria
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEV	GET
Fouls	18	18
Yellow Cards	4	2
Red Cards	1	0
Offsides	2	0
Corner Kicks	2	2
Saves	2	3
Possession	53	47
SHOTS	12	11
ON GOAL	4	5
On Target %	0.3	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	248	199
Passes	343	298
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.7
Accurate Crosses	4	6
Crosses	12	19
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	62	85
Accurate Long Balls	15	38
Long Balls %	0.2	0.4
Blocked Shots	1	2
Effective Tackles	20	15
Tackles	27	22
Tackle %	0.7	0.7
Interceptions	4	10
Effective Clearances	44	25
Clearances	44	25

Computer pick · Total

Over 1.5

60%

At lock SEV 1.00–0.71 GET · 0.2 goals over 1.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop C. Ejuke · SEV
C. Ejuke Over 0.5 SOT
E. Salas · SEV
Defender
G. Suazo · SEV
Defender
O. Vlachodimos · SEV
Goalkeeper
M. Satriano · GET
Forward
Djené · GET
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · C. Ejuke Over 0.5 SOT

-120Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sevilla vs Getafe pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 1.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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