Real Madrid at Racing Santander
FT · ESPN Deportes
3–0
At lock: projected RMA 3.26–1.04 RAC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3773015488
- Winner: Real Madrid (79%)
- Spread: RAC +2.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 4.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RMA 3.26–1.04 RAC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RAC att -0.09 / def -0.27 · RMA att +0.40 / def +0.27 · model RAC 1.1–2.4 RMA
- Home field+0.3 goals to RAC
- RecordRAC 3-2-6 · RMA 9-0-2
- Market priorBlended 80% toward RMA -500 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RMA | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| RAC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 11'
Goal! Racing de Santander 0, Real Madrid 1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL1H 21'
Goal! Racing de Santander 0, Real Madrid 2. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Arda Güler with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Racing de Santander 0, Real Madrid 3. Yan Diomande (Real Madrid) right footed shot from outside the box to the top left corner following a corner.
Game leaders
- Kylian Mbappétotalshots 6
- Dean HuijsenPass 58
- Marc Cucurelladefensiveinterventions 17
- Thibaut CourtoisSV 1
- Iker Luquetotalshots 3
- Iván MartínPass 64
- Pedro Felipedefensiveinterventions 15
- Julen AgirrezabalaSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RMA | RAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 4 |
| Saves | 1 | 5 |
| Possession | 53.7 | 46.3 |
| SHOTS | 22 | 10 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 471 | 387 |
| Passes | 529 | 457 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 4 |
| Crosses | 14 | 14 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 64 | 28 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 46 | 11 |
| Long Balls % | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 8 |
| Tackles | 17 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 19 | 12 |
| Effective Clearances | 20 | 26 |
| Clearances | 20 | 26 |
At lock RMA 3.26–1.04 RAC · 0.2 goals under 4.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp J. Bellingham · RMA
J. Bellingham Over 3.5 shotsK. Mbappé · RMA
ForwardD. Huijsen · RMA
DefenderM. Cucurella · RMA
DefenderT. Courtois · RMA
GoalkeeperI. Luque · RAC
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · J. Bellingham Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Real Madrid vs Racing pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 4.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day